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Anima Eternae
11-29-2006, 09:11 PM
You're holding K Q unsuited.


The flop is 10 3 J.


You're last to act, you've got 1500 chips, and someone leads off with a 250 bet.


Fold or chase?

हिन्दुस्तान
11-29-2006, 09:17 PM
Chase.

Respectable chance of getting a high ranking pair or a straight.

Anima Eternae
11-29-2006, 09:26 PM
Let's say it's a 500 chip bet.

Sulla the Dictator
11-29-2006, 09:30 PM
Let's say it's a 500 chip bet.

I'd put him on jacks.

Depending on what he bet before the flop, I might just put him on a pocket pair. I'd call to see one more card.

हिन्दुस्तान
11-29-2006, 09:33 PM
I'd put him on jacks.

Depending on what he bet before the flop, I might just put him on a pocket pair. I'd call to see one more card.

I disagree because it would cost him extra.

@AE

$500?

You are using a 1/3 of your chips on something that has well below a 50% chance of happening. Those are odds I don't like.

Personally I would fold.

Sulla the Dictator
11-29-2006, 09:43 PM
I disagree because it would cost him extra.


He's got outs. And if he hits the straight or the overpair he has a chance to knock out another player and get closer to the money.

हिन्दुस्तान
11-29-2006, 09:49 PM
You make a valid point but each to his own.

Kodos
11-29-2006, 10:31 PM
You're holding K Q unsuited.


The flop is 10 3 J.


You're last to act, you've got 1500 chips, and someone leads off with a 250 bet.


Fold or chase?

In real poker reraise (against most players against a known locksmith you should probably fold) on the open ended straight draw you have about a 32% chance of making the nut straight and a good chance about 20% he'll fold. Combine this with about a 24% chance of pairing your queens or kings for top pair( and not figuring him for a better hand) you should bet. You don't have enough money relative to his bet to chase two bets in the hopes of making the straight and cleaning him out though. Calling is a weak move generally.

In online poker don't play because the algorithms are crooked.

Kodos
11-29-2006, 10:31 PM
Let's say it's a 500 chip bet.

500 chip I would tend to fold (depends on blinds).

Kodos
11-29-2006, 10:39 PM
I'd put him on jacks.

You immediately put him on the nuts... Anima said nothing about what type of poker player he was in this hypothetical.

If I somehow knew he had jacks I would fold. You are not going to bluff him out and only the straight can save you( since we aren't mentioning suits here).

That gives him a 68 to 32 edge with only a 16% chance of making your straight by 4th street and a likelihood of facing a much bigger bet to see your next card.

Sulla the Dictator
11-29-2006, 11:07 PM
You immediately put him on the nuts... Anima said nothing about what type of poker player he was in this hypothetical.

If I somehow knew he had jacks I would fold. You are not going to bluff him out and only the straight can save you( since we aren't mentioning suits here).


Yeah, but why would he bet $500 on the flop? $250 is a better bet, and I would be more worried. $500 is buying the pot, especially with that flop. If he raised before the flop he either has a low pocket pair or an ace. In all likelyhood he got no part of the flop and wants to end the draw now. Going over the top will get him to fold.

If he didn't bet before the flop and is betting on the jacks or the tens, then one more card gives you the opportunity to bust him with tons of outs. An ace, nine, king or queen wins the hand for you.


That gives him a 68 to 32 edge with only a 16% chance of making your straight by 4th street and a likelihood of facing a much bigger bet to see your next card.

The chanes of busting him out are better with a call, especially with that straight draw like that or the possibility of an overpair.

Kodos
11-29-2006, 11:38 PM
Yeah, but why would he bet $500 on the flop? $250 is a better bet, and I would be more worried. $500 is buying the pot, especially with that flop. If he raised before the flop he either has a low pocket pair or an ace. In all likelyhood he got no part of the flop and wants to end the draw now. Going over the top will get him to fold.

Some people overbet bad though and I would have to know more about the guy before putting up 1/3rd of my stack.

That gives him a 68 to 32 edge with only a 16% chance of making your straight by 4th street and a likelihood of facing a much bigger bet to see your next card.

The chanes of busting him out are better with a call, especially with that straight draw like that or the possibility of an overpair.

You said you put him on jacks(which I took to mean pocket jacks aka the absolute nuts unless the flop came down suited)... if god told me he had jacks I would fold. Chasing for big money against those kind of odds (although you will bust him if you hit the straight and he doesn't full house or god forbid quad out) is a donk move.

I rarely just call after the flop, you ussually should either be betting or folding. Just calling is for when you flopped a very strong (trips at least with a rainbow flop, or perhaps a two suited flop if there was pre flop betting) hand and you want to give other people a chance to bet.

Sulla the Dictator
11-30-2006, 12:33 AM
Some people overbet bad though and I would have to know more about the guy before putting up 1/3rd of my stack.


Well yeah, the question is to vague. But we would know how he was playing if we were in this situation, since we would see how he would bet before the flop.



You said you put him on jacks(which I took to mean pocket jacks aka the absolute nuts unless the flop came down suited)...


I put him on a pair of jacks at best after the flop, not three of a kind. Depending on how he bet before, I would put him on a pair of 4s through 9s, because he would have checked had he flopped three tens or three jacks.


if god told me he had jacks I would fold. Chasing for big money against those kind of odds (although you will bust him if you hit the straight and he doesn't full house or god forbid quad out) is a donk move.


Yeah but you don't know what he has. Why would he bet $500 after the flop? Besides, you can almost never plan for a full boat or quads, anymore than you can bet or fold on the fear of a straight or royal flush.

Three jacks or tens means a check/raise, if you ask me. I doubt he would have stayed to see the flop with a pair of threes unless he was big blind. So we're looking at a pair of tens, a pair of jacks, an ACE, or a low pocket pair which wouldn't be threes. Or, of course, a stone cold bluff. Or a lower straight draw, suited 8/9.

Any better hand and he would check. Either he can check raise you or, if we check he can hope we get a something on the turn that would keep us in for a $500 bet.



I rarely just call after the flop, you ussually should either be betting or folding. Just calling is for when you flopped a very strong (trips at least with a rainbow flop, or perhaps a two suited flop if there was pre flop betting) hand and you want to give other people a chance to bet.

A call sets us up on the fourth card to do whatever we want. Even if we MISS the straight with an 8 we can represent it with a reraise. But everything from an 8 to an ace helps us win the pot.

il ragno
11-30-2006, 12:46 AM
Gee - it's like I'm eavesdroppping on terrorist spies talking in code!


You're holding K Q unsuited. The flop is 10 3 J. You're last to act, you've got 1500 chips, and someone leads off with a 250 bet. Fold or chase?
"Comrade Leader, the ventilation ducts are too narrow to place nuclear devices without risking detection or discovery. Advise."

He's got outs. And if he hits the straight or the overpair he has a chance to knock out another player and get closer to the money.
"Manually remove duct tubing, place device directly in vent and secure with velcro strap, then replace tubing. Hail evil!"

Kodos
11-30-2006, 02:13 AM
Gee - it's like I'm eavesdroppping on terrorist spies talking in code!


You're holding K Q unsuited. The flop is 10 3 J. You're last to act, you've got 1500 chips, and someone leads off with a 250 bet. Fold or chase?
"Comrade Leader, the ventilation ducts are too narrow to place nuclear devices without risking detection or discovery. Advise."

He's got outs. And if he hits the straight or the overpair he has a chance to knock out another player and get closer to the money.
"Manually remove duct tubing, place device directly in vent and secure with velcro strap, then replace tubing. Hail evil!"

LOL I would have gotten away with it if it weren't for you meddling kids.

I like you too much to kill you Ragno so lets say you join the gang :D.

OVERWATCH
11-30-2006, 02:14 AM
You need to Tango the Jakeleg and give your chips the Twist. Your opponent will be forced to flop the dandy leaving you with an easy opportunity to dollop the fanny.

Kodos
11-30-2006, 02:18 AM
Three jacks or tens means a check/raise, if you ask me. I doubt he would have stayed to see the flop with a pair of threes unless he was big blind.

Depends on if it was raised preflop, I don't like suited connectors (one big reason online poker is crooked is there are bad players who call big preflop raises with suited connectors all the time... they should be starving to death but they hit their fucking flush about 1/3 to 1/4 of the time) but if the price is cheap I will call with a weak pair in hopes of getting trips and busting someone.

A call sets us up on the fourth card to do whatever we want. Even if we MISS the straight with an 8 we can represent it with a reraise. But everything from an 8 to an ace helps us win the pot.

You do the Stu Ungar thing... call to the river and go all in. I do that occasionally but you can't do it every hand...

Kodos
11-30-2006, 02:19 AM
You need to Tango the Jakeleg and give your chips the Twist. Your opponent will be forced to flop the dandy leaving you with an easy opportunity to dollop the fanny.

LOL which D&D book is this in?

Sulla the Dictator
11-30-2006, 03:37 AM
Three jacks or tens means a check/raise, if you ask me. I doubt he would have stayed to see the flop with a pair of threes unless he was big blind.

Depends on if it was raised preflop, I don't like suited connectors (one big reason online poker is crooked is there are bad players who call big preflop raises with suited connectors all the time... they should be starving to death but they hit their fucking flush about 1/3 to 1/4 of the time) but if the price is cheap I will call with a weak pair in hopes of getting trips and busting someone.


They do. And even when they don't, they hit straights and pairs ridiculously often.

However, whats this other guy about? We don't know. But if we were there, we would have an idea.

But screw our cards. We have to put him on something. And I think we've sussed out his hand pretty good. The question is; is it worth it to take a chance to bust him out?

I mean, for all he knows WE hit trips, or WE have a flush draw, or WE have a high pocket pair. I say call and represent after the turn.



A call sets us up on the fourth card to do whatever we want. Even if we MISS the straight with an 8 we can represent it with a reraise. But everything from an 8 to an ace helps us win the pot.

You do the Stu Ungar thing... call to the river and go all in. I do that occasionally but you can't do it every hand...


True, but with a King/Queen in your hand, and a possible straight draw thats THIS good and two more cards, I say its worth the risk. We'll bust him. He has to have a made hand to call our all in, and there's nothing in the flop which we can assume makes his hand.

Would you call an all in with a pair of jacks or tens?

Kodos
11-30-2006, 03:43 AM
Would you call an all in with a pair of jacks or tens?

Not tens unless I know the guy bluffs all the time and even then, or the blinds were way high...

With Jacks I ussually wouldn't call an all in but it would depend on blinds, the player etc...

Anima Eternae
11-30-2006, 05:03 AM
Unbelievable. Some idiot just went all in with pocket 7's and I called with K/A suited.

Flop is 2 3 A.

Turn is a 7.



God, I hate idiots playing who get so lucky...

Kodos
11-30-2006, 05:28 AM
Unbelievable. Some idiot just went all in with pocket 7's and I called with K/A suited.

Flop is 2 3 A.

Turn is a 7.



God, I hate idiots playing who get so lucky...

Technically the 7's were a favorite pre flop (though by a very small margin if your AK is suited)... did they go all in pre flop or after the flop?

Don't play online the algorithm is crooked on every site without exception. Especially avoid party poker...

Stick to the Facts
11-30-2006, 05:32 AM
Technically the 7's were a favorite pre flop... did they go all in pre flop or after the flop?

Pocket sevens has a tiny statistical advantage over AK suited - against a random hand.

It's performance heads up against a hand that will move all in or call an all in raise is quite a bit worse.

Anima Eternae
11-30-2006, 05:37 AM
Just lost another hand:

I have pocket 10's. .

Flop is 8 10 2.

He has pocket A's and goes all in after the flop

Guess what? Ace on the river.

Fuck.

Kodos
11-30-2006, 05:38 AM
Pocket sevens has a tiny statistical advantage over AK suited - against a random hand.

It's performance heads up against a hand that will move all in or call an all in raise is quite a bit worse.

Because it faces the possibility of dealing with a higher pair where its chances are 1 in 5 ( now if the pocket 7's were against J10 suited it would be a slight dog).

Depending on blinds and your own chip stack size (your "M") it is sometimes correct to bet all in with marginal pairs. Your M has to be very bad for you to call with them.

Kodos
11-30-2006, 05:39 AM
Just lost another hand:

I have pocket 10's. .

Flop is 8 10 2.

He has pocket A's and goes all in after the flop

Guess what? Ace on the river.

Fuck.

Yeah that sounds more like online poker...