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Intrepid
12-12-2006, 03:01 AM
Key, you see this? There's some slick angles to the art of negotiation in this one. Schuerholz took Bavasi to school, you should of seen the Mariners' board over the trade. Bucco fans didn't seem to keen in not getting LaRoche, either.

The REAL LaRoche/Gonzalez Story

I finally have the Gonzalez/LaRoche deal figured out after talking to a ton of people.

Evidently, the Braves have *always* wanted Paul Maholm and Jose Castillo since the GM meetings. (Kudos to harvardplayer who posted a message in this thread because you were dead on baby.) Littlefield agreed with Castillo but refused to trade Maholm. He offered Grabow instead and Schuerholz backed away.

Schuerholz then said Gonzalez for LaRoche and the teams couldn't come together in a package. Evidently, the Braves then pulled this off the table last Saturday.

At some point over the last few days, Schuerholz came back and said he'd take Gonzalez for LaRoche again (possibly wanting Castillo as well and that was why we were hearing Davies name), but this time he had no intention of ever doing the deal. His goal was two-fold:

one, to drive the price of LaRoche up so he could get the Angels to bite on a LaRoche/Giles deal for Kotchman/Figgins.. the Angels knew better of course, and backed away; and

two, to get the Mariners to the table because they were talking with other teams about Soriano - the Braves true target.

While Littlefield was having his medical team send Gonzo's file to the Braves, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution released the article indicating a deal was done between the Braves and Pirates.. the Post-Gazette evidently picked it up and ran it immediately too, and that was enough to drive Bavasi to the phone and do the Soriano deal for Ramirez. Schuerholz pulled LaRoche off the table as soon as he got Bavasi's call.

But Schuerholz wasn't done.. knowing the media had made Littlefield look like a fool that he didn't get the LaRoche deal done, and thinking Littlefield was in 'save-my-job-mode', he came back at Littlefield wanting his original deal - Maholm and Castillo for LaRoche. Littlefield, of course, said no. The Braves want to clear some salary and see Castillo as a cheaper 2B option than Giles, and Maholm as a Ramirez replacement.

In fairness to Dave Littlefield, Schuerholz took him over a barrel. But he had no way of knowing he was being taken until it all played out. What hurt Littlefield is when both the AJC and the Post-Gazette *both* ran with the seemingly made up story about the Braves and Pirates being close, someone with the Mariners probably heard about it, and Bavasi, eager to get some kind of starting pitching, made the call earlier than he wanted to make to Schuerholz.

If the Post-Gazette had not released that article confirming what the AJC said (or vice-versa if the Post-Gazette was the paper that released the information first), Bavasi might never have called Schuerholz as quick as he did. And that was why I heard on the floor the papers screwed up this deal. In reality, the papers reported what seemed obvious - one team was asking for medicals on a player which doesn't happen until a deal is done.

Posturing.. Schuerholz is a pro at it and he rode David Littlefield all the way from one end of the Dolphin Hotel to the other to get what he really wanted - Soriano.

You have to hand it to Littlefield though. He was taken for a ride but it was a ride he had to take. He was never going to get LaRoche without giving up Maholm and Castillo and he held his ground. Kudo's to Dave for that.

While Dave walks away with egg on his face in the fans eyes, he had no choice, as one Asst GM told me tonight -- he had to play it out if LaRoche was his target and he was willing to give up Gonzalez for him.

So the bottom line is this, there doesn't seem to have ever been an honest LaRoche/Gonzalez offer on the table. If there was, it was late last week.. not this week. That would also explain why the Braves are saying Littlefield took too long to deal.. he did last week because he had to gauge the market and interest for Gonzo since no closer of significance had been signed and a lot of teams were looking for one.

The Braves simply used Littlefield. It happens all the time and it has happened to some other GM's, even this year.

Littlefield evidently sensed he was being played all along because he kept talking to other teams who called about Gonzalez and two of those rumors hit the floor tonight.. one with the Mets.

I sense that Littlefield really isn't interested in dealing Mike Gonzalez like the media thinks he is. Don't get me wrong, if he could acquire a young player to fill a hole in his long-range plans, he'll do the deal. But that isn't likely to happen until well after the first of the year after all the free agents are off the market and true values have been established.

Let's face it, Littlefield knows he can get a lot more for Gonzo in January to some team who wasn't able to fill their needs but feels they are close.. and even more in July to a team whose closer might have bit the dust or isn't performing (think Cubs, by the way).

So, as I have suspected and hoped all along, Dave Littlefield is expected to head home from the winter meetings with his roster intact, his cell phone still on, and waiting for that call he knows eventually will come - some team in trouble needing one of his players. Once all the free agents are gone, he very well might even consider trading Maholm - but the price then will be considerably higher than it is right now because there won't be any other options for the team in need.

Good job Dave.


http://buccoblog.mlblogs.com/my_weblog/2006/12/winter_meetings.html

Keystone
12-13-2006, 10:28 PM
The Maholm-Castillo for Laroche trade should have been done. Dave Littlebrain is holding onto his 4 young starters like a leech. That's all we've got to deal, and you've got to give to get.

Our ownership is from hell.

Intrepid
12-14-2006, 02:42 AM
The Maholm-Castillo for Laroche trade should have been done. Dave Littlebrain is holding onto his 4 young starters like a leech. That's all we've got to deal, and you've got to give to get.

Our ownership is from hell.

Littlefield seems to be holding a line of not wanting to be taken by a more well-respected GM, especially last year. Kind of like Tampa Bay. You couldn't pry Baez or Lugo from 'em for top-of-the-line prospects early last year, then the Dodgers picked both up for a song.

It's gotta be hard, though, with the financial constraints upon the small/mid market teams. We're nearing the Oakland/Minnesota level now, enroute to where you are, no doubt. From spending Yankee-like dough to the bottom third of teams in less than a decade.

BTW, I think LaRoche's season was a fluke. The guy's got ADD, started taking his meds again, then had a booming second half. Prolly not worth Gonzales straight-up, IMO.

Intrepid
01-17-2007, 11:37 PM
Never seen one quite like this out of JS. Usually, they're out-of-the-blue, and never the the ones talked about in the blogs/beat writers. But this one just kept going, and going, and...

Pirates get LaRoche,
but Gonzo's gone
By: John Perrotto, Times Sports Staff
01/17/2007

The Pittsburgh Pirates have finally landed power-hitting first baseman Adam LaRoche from the Atlanta Braves in a four-player trade, ending a pursuit that has lasted almost the entire off-season.

The Pirates agreed on Wednesday to trade closer Mike Gonzalez and minor-league shortstop Brent Lillibridge to the Braves for LaRoche and minor-league outfielder Jamie Romak. The deal is not expected to be announced until Thursday or Friday as the players must undergo physical examinations.

The Braves had long pushed for center fielder Chris Duffy to be part of the deal, but the Pirates refused.

LaRoche, 27, had the best season of his three-year career last year as he hit .285 with 32 home runs and 90 RBIs in 149 games. The son of former All-Star relief pitcher Dave LaRoche and brother of top Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman prospect Andy LaRoche also made only five errors last season.

Romak played at low Class A Rome last season and hit .247 with 16 homers and 68 RBIs in 108 games. The 22-year-old right-handed hitter from London, Ontario, was the Braves' fourth-round draft pick in 2003.

The Pirates and Braves have been talking about a potential trade since the general managers' meeting in early November and finally agreed on a deal when Pittsburgh reluctantly decided to give up Lilllibridge, one of their best prospects, instead of Duffy, who the Braves desired.

Lillibridge, 23, hit a combined .305 with 13 homers, 71 RBIs and 53 steals in 128 games on the Class A level with Hickory and Lynchburg last season. Gonzalez, 28, converted all 24 of his save opportunities in 2006 in his first full year as the closer. He also had a 3-4 record and a 2.17 ERA in 54 games.


http://zwire.townnews.biz/site/news.cfm?notn=1&ncdr=1&newsid=17724155&BRD=2305&PAG=461&dept_id=478569&rfi=6&nc=1

Keystone
01-18-2007, 10:07 AM
Everybody here thought the deal was dead. Chris Duffy stays but ATL gets Brent Lillibridge (shortstop), our top prospect in the low minors.

I'm not buying my World Series tickets yet, but having LaRoche and Jason Bay hitting 4-5 ain't too shabby. Plus, LaRoche is a slick fielder which is something we haven't had at 1B since the Great Depression.

JS shores up a leaky bullpen with Gonzalez.

Sweet deal.

Intrepid
01-20-2007, 01:33 AM
I think proportionately, it benefits the Pirates a little more, short term, as you desperately needed someone to protect Bay. Funny how we signed Wilson less than 24 hours to platoon with our other young first sacker, Thorman. It'd be safe to say this was a done deal, with all it took was Littlefield to finally cough up Lillibridge. Pecota thinks he's a top 10-15 prospect in, yes, all of baseball. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=155

The Hardball Times had a pretty balanced read on it:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/laroche-for-gonzalez/

LaRoche for Gonzalez
by Jeff Sackmann
January 19, 2007

It's not official yet, but the Pirates and Braves finally have made the big trade they've been discussing since before the winter meetings. The Pirates are sending closer Mike Gonzalez and minor league infielder Brent Lillibridge to Atlanta for first baseman Adam LaRoche and minor league outfielder Jamie Romak.

At Talking Chop, Martin Gandy offers a good summary of various takes on the trade: not unlike the Johnny Estrada/Doug Davis deal earlier in the offseason, this is one of those rare transactions where both sides might actually be coming out ahead.

To see whether it's actually a win-win, let's take a brief look at each of the players involved.

Adam LaRoche

LaRoche is the known quantity here. He has only three major league campaigns under his belt (and thus will be under the Pirates' control through 2009), but broke through in a major way in 2006. After slugging .488 and .455 in his first two seasons, his '06 SLG was .561, good for 8th best in the NL.

The projection systems ZiPS and CHONE both predict that LaRoche will settle in between his '06 and '04-05 numbers with an OPS in the mid- to high-.800s. That won't earn him a spot on the All-Star team, but it will be a massive upgrade for the Bucs, who got a .276/.357/.425 line last year from their first base corps of Sean Casey, Craig Wilson, Xavier Nady, and Ryan Doumit.

Then again, if LaRoche becomes an everyday player (he's never topped 500 ABs in a single season), his numbers may suffer. Over his career, his OPS has been more than 100 points lower against left-handed pitching, and he's been deployed accordingly. While the Pirates faced lefties in more than 25% of their plate appearances last year, LaRoche saw them in fewer than than 20% of his. That's not going to destroy his value, but it will knock him down a notch if Jim Tracy wants him to start 150 games next year.

Mike Gonzalez

While he comes with more question marks—mostly health-related—than LaRoche, Gonzalez has the potential to be the best player involved in this deal. He's never thrown more than 54 innings in a big-league campaign, but since he established himself at the MLB level, he's been eye-poppingly effective.

While the Yankees were interested in him earlier in the offseason (more on that in a moment) as a lefty set-up man, Gonzalez can get anybody out, and would probably be the No. 1 closer candidate on about half of all major league teams right now. He has been devastating against lefties, to the tune of .179/.273/.246, but is no slouch against right-handers, holding them to a modest .218/.313/.312.

Whether the Braves deploy him as a closer or a set-up man, he's probably the best reliever currently slated to be in Atlanta's pen next year: more dominating than Bob Wickman and at least as good as Rafael Soriano. He also immediately becomes one of John Schuerholz's most desired trading chips.

The Minor Leaguers

Lillibridge is a good prospect: both Kevin Goldstein and John Sickels rated him as the No. 3 prospect in the Pirates system. Nate Silver noted that his projection system, PECOTA, puts him among the top 10 to 15 prospects in baseball. Given that the Braves don't have a clear starting second baseman for 2007, let alone a long-term solution, Lillibridge could fill one of their biggest needs.

Romak is a different story. He's proven he can take a walk, and he's hit for good power in the low minors, but he hardly registers as a prospect in the deep Braves system. For Atlanta, Romak is the kind of guy you use to get a deal done, then forget about him.

The Replacements

Trades, of course, don't happen in a vacuum. More important than LaRoche's or Gonzalez's stats are how they compare to the guys who will be taking their places.

For Atlanta, that probably means some sort of jobshare between Scott Thorman and the newly signed Craig Wilson. Thorman had a strong half-season in Richmond, putting up an equivalent OPS of nearly .800, but faltered upon reaching the big leagues. However, the Braves are known for their patience with young players; Thorman will be only 25 next year, and an optimistic projection puts him right about where LaRoche was two or three years ago.

The other option, probably a year down the road, is for Brian McCann to move to first. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, the Braves' top catching prospect, had a strong second half in Double-A last year and is probably a better defender than McCann. While that possibility isn't reason enough to move a quality first baseman 15 months in advance, it does make the move more defensible.

For the Pirates, the picture is less rosy. One could argue that the Pirates don't need a dominating closer—after all, how many times will they need one?—but they don't have an obvious candidate to fill the breach.

Salomon Torres is the top possibility, having served as the Bucs ninth-inning guy for a stretch in 2006. He probably will serve quite admirably, having registered an ERA+ of at least 137 in each of the last three years. Surprisingly for a 34-year-old hurler, his strikeout rate in 2006 was the highest in his career.

While Torres will do fine in his new role, the trade leaves the Pirates with one fewer quality reliever. After Torres, Damaso Marte is the only bullpen arm with more than one solid campaign in recent memory, and he has been increasingly relegated to lefty specialist duty. Matt Capps and John Grabow could build on their decent '06 seasons, but neither had overwhelming peripherals. Capps got by with a weak strikeout rate; Grabow survived nearly four walks per nine innings.

The Aftermath

For the Braves, this may be the first of multiple moves. While it must be reassuring for Schuerholz and Bobby Cox to have a watertight bullpen after last season's disaster, three closer-quality bullpen arms might be overdoing it.

As I mentioned earlier, Gonzalez is an in-demand commodity; if healthy, he's likely among the top 20 relievers in baseball, and it certainly doesn't hurt that he throws with his left arm. Most important for Schuerholz, two of the teams known to have strong interest in Gonzalez are the Yankees and Red Sox.

In other words, it may be premature to give the Braves a grade on this deal. If Gonzalez turns into, say, Scott Proctor and Melky Cabrera (as Martin Gandy speculates), it not only allows the Braves to maintain a strong pen, but lets them add another offensive piece and gain still more flexibility.

Is this a win-win? Depends what you think about the Pirates' bullpen. The Pittsburgh offense will improve in the short-term, and probably in the medium-term as well. The benefit of adding LaRoche to the lineup is probably greater than the long-term improvement of Lillibridge over whoever he'd be replacing in '08 and beyond.

The Braves aren't losing much at first base—after all, it isn't hard to find cheap production out of a quad-A corner guy—but they're gaining infield flexibility and bullpen strength.

There's no doubt Atlanta came out ahead. Pittsburgh? Well, you have to take risks when you want to win 75 games.