Iraq oil reserves could be twice previous estimates

[Thinker]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2003672943_webiraqoil19.html

Thursday, April 19, 2007 - Page updated at 09:48 AM
Iraq oil reserves could be twice previous estimates
By The Associated Press

WASHINGTON — Iraq's oil reserves could be nearly twice as large as previously estimated, containing more than 200 billion barrels, a new analysis of the war-torn country's oil resources says.

The consulting firm IHS Inc., in a report released Wednesday, said there may be an additional 100 billion barrels of oil beneath the surface in the western part of the country. The country's current reserve base is estimated to be 116 billion barrels.

The U.S. Geological Survey has been less optimistic about Iraq's untapped potential, estimating there exists an additional reserve base of 45 billion barrels.

The IHS report also said Iraq's daily production, which now stands at 2 million barrels per day, could rise to 4 million barrels a day if the conflict there subsides and new investments in oil infrastructure are made.

In 1979, the country's best year, Iraqi oil production averaged roughly 3 million barrels a day. Iraqi officials had set a target of pumping and 3.5 million barrels a day by mid-2006, but that goal was not realized.

IHS said its experts performed a field-by-field analysis of Iraqi oil prospects and that it would release a detailed analysis of Iraqi oil reserves next month.

"The market has not had access to this level of data and analysis on Iraq's oil reserves and production capabilities for many years," Ron Mobed, president and chief operating officer of the energy division of IHS said in the statement.

A call to Iraq's oil ministry seeking comment was not immediately returned.

[Thinker]

Here's some more info on this. This firm will release its full report on May 9. I'll be sure to post it here. :)

http://www.oilonline.com/news/headlines/internet/20070419.IHS_laun.23503.asp

IHS launches first detailed report on Iraq’s oil reserves and production potential
by: OilOnline
Thursday, April 19, 2007

IHS Inc. has announced the upcoming launch of the Iraq Atlas, the first and only detailed analysis of oil reserves, production and development opportunities developed since the start of the Iraq conflict.

The Iraq Atlas, which will be available from IHS on May 9, is a unique overview of all known prospects and fields in Iraq, and estimates oil reserves at up to 116 billion barrels, ranking the country number three in the world. The Iraq Atlas estimates that there could potentially be another 100 billion barrels of oil in the Western Desert of Iraq.

The Iraq Atlas provides the highest and most accurate level of detail available to date of reserves field by field. A total of 435 undrilled prospects and non-commercial discoveries, and 81 producing fields and commercial discoveries are included. Reservoirs have been re-evaluated using new information and all field reserves and production numbers have been reassessed and validated. In particular, the Iraq Atlas reviews:

* All proven and in-place reserves by reservoir, including cumulative production figures
* Estimates of remaining recoverable oil and gas reserves by reservoir by the end 2006
* Location maps and structure maps for fields and prospects, along with maps of the new bidding round blocks
* New discoveries in Iraqi Kurdistan, along with a guide to exploration in this region
* The Western Desert of Iraq, which is believed to hold exploration potential of approximately 100 billion barrels of oil and a large amount of gas
* A complete review of the stratigraphy for all discoveries in Iraq, including test results and stratigraphic columns and cross sections

“The market has not had access to this level of data and analysis on Iraq’s oil reserves and production capabilities for many years,” said Ron Mobed, president and chief operating officer of the energy segment of IHS. “Clearly, the sourcing of accurate data is invaluable in planning, negotiating and contracting for the rebuilding of Iraq’s oil infrastructure. While a few companies may have selected data based on cooperative agreements, most are basing investigations of geological, cost and risk considerations on older and less detailed data. With the Iraq Atlas, investors are now able to assess both exploration and field partnership opportunities in the region, and IHS is well placed to advise them on such opportunities."

“In 2007, the Iraqi government is expected to launch a bid round for 65 exploration blocks and 78 fields are also to be offered for development,” Mobed added. “The Iraq Atlas will help companies evaluate these blocks and fields quickly and accurately.”

It took more than a year of research to develop the Iraq Atlas using IHS software and a number of IHS and Iraqi geological and petroleum engineers with an average of more than 30 years of regional expertise in the Iraq exploration and production sector. The Iraq Atlas provides insight on investment issues and a host of other features across the geo-political and geological landscape.

The Iraq Atlas estimate of up to another potential 100 billion barrels of oil reserves is largely based on the establishment of new play concepts in the Western Desert of Iraq, which have been generated from a recent study of the Western Arabian Platform. The Western Desert of Iraq is widely regarded as being substantially under explored with only one commercial discovery in the region largely because Iraq has had a surplus of oil to date and little incentive for exploration.

“Most of Iraq’s oil production comes from the south of Iraq and is exported via the Persian Gulf because of repeated sabotage attacks on facilities in the north,” said Mohamed Zine, IHS regional manager for the Middle East. “This has resulted in a current production capacity of two million barrels of oil per day. However, the Iraq Atlas estimates indicate that given a stable political and civil environment, Iraq has the potential to produce four million barrels a day in the near term if necessary investments are made in repairing and modernizing facilities.”

Zine added: “The cost to produce oil in some Iraq fields is less than $2 per barrel according to our estimates and investments involved in developing the fields are minimal.”

Prior to Iraq’s war with Iran in 1980, the country had a production capacity of 3.6 million barrels of oil per day. It was 3.2 million barrels per day before the first Gulf War in 1990 and 2.7 million barrels per day before the start of the most recent conflict.

[Thinker]

Now, let's say that Iraq can ramp up production to the 4 million barrels/day the report says is a target.

With the new estimate of 200 billion barrels in reserves, pumping 4 million barrels/day means that those reserves will last 137 years.

[Thinker]

One other note . . .

Total world oil reserves as of 2006 were 1,292.5 billion barrels:
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0872964.html

Therefore, this additional 100 billion barrels in Iraq adds 7.7% to the world's total known oil reserves.

[Petr]

Paper barrels...


Most of the oil they currently know about is located in the Shia (eastern) and Kurdish (northern) areas. The reason the Sunnis want a strong federal government is so they can get a piece of the Shia and Kurd oil action.

I can't help but suspect this "new oil", which they claim just so happens to be in the Sunni (western) area, is at least partially propaganda designed with an eye to calming the Sunnis.

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/BreakingNews.html


Petr

[Thinker]

Oh yes, it's surely a conspiracy. :rolleyes: Peak Oil cannot possibly not be true, so if anyone comes along and finds a huge amount of new oil, it must be a conspiracy. :nopity:

[Petr]

Peak Oil cannot possibly not be true, so if anyone comes along and finds a huge amount of new oil, it must be a conspiracy. :nopity:
Peak Oil is true, you cornucopian <flame deleted>. It's only the question of when.


Petr

[Thinker]

Peak Oil is true, you cornucopian dumbo. It's only the question of when.


Petr
Yes, you're right. Oil production could peak in . . . oh, let's say . . . 50 years. But by then they'll have better ways to power our cars, so who cares? Or by then, technology will enable cars to get 100mpg. So who cares?

[Ratatoskur]

woohooo, we can continue to pump noxious fumes into the atmosphere.

[Petr]

Yes, you're right. Oil production could peak in . . . oh, let's say . . . 50 years. But by then they'll have better ways to power our cars, so who cares? Or by then, technology will enable cars to get 100mpg. So who cares?
Do you have any scientific-technological training yourself to make so confident pronouncements?


Petr

[Thinker]

Do you have any scientific-technological training yourself to make so confident pronouncements?


Petr
I took 2.5 years of computer programming. I have degrees in Geography and Urban Planning. I do geographic information systems for a living. Not to mention that I've been an armchair economist and technologist for years.

The history of economics and technology has always been that we find new ways of doing things using new technology well before the old way has exhausted its resources.

[Thinker]

Here's a second study concluding the same thing as the IHS study last year.

--> LINK (http://www.business24-7.ae/cs/article_show_mainh1_story.aspx?HeadlineID=3071) <--

It's a long article, so I'll just hit the highlights.
Iraq has ‘more crude oil’ than Saudi Arabia
By Agencies on Friday, February 29 , 2008

An initial investment of $40 billion (Dh146.8bn) is needed to put Iraq’s oil industry back on track, according to a new book.

The country is an oil superpower with the world’s third largest proven reserves – and development programmes could add billions of barrels within a few years, catapulting it to the number one position.

[...]

Chalabi, a former senior Iraqi oil ministry official, believes the country has huge undiscovered reserves on the grounds but no major development projects have been undertaken for more than two decades.

The proven reserves were officially put at 112 billion barrels in 2007 but Chalabi believes the final figure could exceed 300 billion barrels. “Iraq could have this figure, there is no exaggeration in this,” he said.

His view is supported by a Western oil analyst who goes even further by saying Iraq’s real oil potential could surpass that of Saudi Arabia, which controls nearly a quarter of the world’s proven oil deposits.

Colin Lothian, a senior analyst at United Kingdom-based energy consultants Wood Mackenzie, says Iraq has many giant oilfields that have remained undeveloped.

“Iraq’s remaining reserves, particularly in the south, are of considerable scale, high quality and most are at a relatively immature stage in their respective development cycles,” said Lothian.

“There are many fields that each contain billions of barrels of oil.

“On the whole their depletion rate is very low and in several cases these fields have never been in production. If you add to that the possible results of exploration in the Western Desert and in established areas, the potential is enormous. As for whether Iraq’s reserves are larger than those in Saudi Arabia, I would certainly not rule out that possibility.

”The new book, written in English, was prepared by a number of oil experts from Iraq and other countries.

The principal author and chief editor is Thamir Uqaili, a senior petroleum engineer with 40 years of experience in exploration and technical management in the Iraqi National Oil Company and at the Iraqi Ministry of Oil (MOO). The study was supervised by Chalbi, a former assistant secretary-general of Opec.

[...]

However, two zones are potential exploration targets. The Rutba-Jezira zone has scarcely been explored although some discoveries were made prior to 1961. The Jezira area north of the Euphrates has over 50 seismic anomalies requiring exploration.

The recent discovery of the Akkas Field in part of Rutba, known as the Western Desert, gave an encouraging signal to look for prospective light oil and gas reserves in the Palaeozoic formations of that part of Iraq. A second point of interest is the discoveries in the Dohuk Area.

Oil and gas were expected in Pila Spi, Shiranish, Qamchuqa and Kurra Chine formations, but not in the amount discovered in Tawake and possibly the nearby structures.

The discoveries by the Norwegian company Det Norske Oljeselskap suggest there is more oil in Kurdistan.

The Foothill zone southeast of the Kirkuk Field down to the border with Iran witnessed several important discoveries during the late 1970s and 1980s.

But many other structures and seismic anomalies await exploration drilling that may turn the area, partly in Sulaimaniya Governorate and partly in Dyala Governorate, into an important production province.

In the south the large reserves of heavy crude oil in Lower Fars, Ghar and Maudud reservoirs need exploration or delineation drilling in order to be quantified.

Although southern Iraq is relatively well explored, formations deeper than the Yamama Reservoir are still under-explored, especially the Najma and Khuff formations where light oil, gas and gas condensate are expected.

[Petr]

The history of economics and technology has always been that we find new ways of doing things using new technology well before the old way has exhausted its resources.
This is just teleological-progressivist superstition - making the non sequitur assumption that just because something has worked out in the past, it will also work out in the future.

The great oil crisis is going to be like the death of a human individual: there may be initially many false alarms, doctors may often be able to nurse man back to health, but finally the physical ailments start to get worse and worse. The final collapse is coming, no matter how much it could be delayed by ingenious medical/technical tricks.


Petr

[Thinker]

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article3964957.ece

May 20, 2008
Iraq could have largest oil reserves in the world
Sonia Verma in Sharm el-Sheikh

Iraq dramatically increased the official size of its oil reserves yesterday after new data suggested that they could exceed Saudi Arabia’s and be the largest in the world.

The Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister told The Times that new exploration showed that his country has the world’s largest proven oil reserves, with as much as 350 billion barrels. The figure is triple the country’s present proven reserves and exceeds that of Saudi Arabia’s estimated 264 billion barrels of oil. Barham Salih said that the new estimate had been based on recent geological surveys and seismic data compiled by “reputable, international oil companies . . . This is a serious figure from credible sources.”

The Iraqi Government has yet to approve a national oil law that would allow foreign companies to invest. Mr Salih said that the delay was damaging Iraq’s ability to profit from oil output, robbing the country of potentially huge revenues. With oil selling for more than $125 dollars a barrel and demand rising, Mr Salih is frustrated that Iraq still struggles over the establishment of a regulatory framework. “There is a real debate in the Government and among political leaders about the type of oil management structures we should have. I am for liberalising this sector and allowing the private sector to come in to develop these vast resources.”

BP, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell and Total have been queuing for rights to exploit Iraqi reserves. Mr Salih confirmed that Iraq was negotiating the outlines of two-year deals with some of the companies. He was optimistic that a draft law could be approved in the near future.

[...]

[Isra'il Yahya]

Are these inflated estimates?

[cyborg]

Some good points were made in the following article, excerpted below. It's about Fukuyama's End of History (or, the values foundation of neoconservativism): history culminated in the best possible system, liberal democracy, and here we must remain.

While it’s popular just now to argue that these problems can be fixed without undercutting the system itself, the evidence increasingly points the other way. The American way of life, for example, depends on arrangements that allow 5% of the world’s population to exploit some 33% of its natural resources. The convulsions set off in recent years by modest improvements in China’s and India’s standards of living demonstrate that on a finite planet with rapidly depleting resources, Fukuyama’s vision of a world made over in the image of America is a pipe dream.

http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2008/06/triumph-of-history.html

Now, if the American way of life is to be the world's way of life, per Fukuyama's declaration, the world, assuming present tools and knowledge are utilized, will require 660% of its natural resources to make it so. That, or our upcoming technical capability will need to be several times more efficient in time for all seven, oops, perhaps nine to twelve billion of Earth's people at that future time, to enjoy the American way of life.

[Petr]

Now, if the American way of life is to be the world's way of life, per Fukuyama's declaration, the world, assuming present tools and knowledge are utilized, will require 660% of its natural resources to make it so. That, or our upcoming technical capability will need to be several times more efficient in time for all seven, oops, perhaps nine to twelve billion of Earth's people at that future time, to enjoy the American way of life.
Exponential growth is a concept that pollyanna cornucopians simply do not get, or do not want to get.


Petr

[Thinker]

Are these inflated estimates?
Perhaps a read of one of the reader comments at the bottom of the article should tell you if these are inflated or not:
Having met a number of senior haliburton employees in the far east a couple of years ago, i can assure you this,there is much more oil than this, to quote them "if you stub your toe in irag you get covered in the stuff" and that real reserves represent an astonishing ten times more than saudi

karl, london

[Thinker]

http://images.jupiterimages.com/common/detail/81/64/22566481.jpg

[Dan Dare]

Perhaps a read of one of the reader comments at the bottom of the article should tell you if these are inflated or not:

We've seen reports as well from a usually impeccable source (Messrs. Wallace & Gromit) that the moon consists largely of Wensleydale cheese.

[Thinker]

We've seen reports as well from a usually impeccable source (Messrs. Wallace & Gromit) that the moon consists largely of Wensleydale cheese.
An article in GeoTimes from 2003:
http://www.geotimes.org/oct03/feature_oil.html
^
Petroleum geologists have delineated and mapped more than 526 prospects, drilling 131 prospects to discover 73 major fields. Some 239 undrilled prospects have a high degree of certainty. Thirty fields have been partially developed and 12 fields are actually onstream.
. . .

The 58 undeveloped fields, including giant fields such as Majnoon, Nahr Umr, Halfaya and West Qurna, are available for immediate development under production sharing agreement terms. Roughly $10 billion is necessary to develop 2 million barrels of oil per day over an eight to 10 year period, with the possibility of initial revenue being generated within two years using existing facilities.

A further 20 large- to medium-sized fields, with a production capacity of 1.5 million barrels of oil per day, can be developed relatively easily since they are located near existing production centers at Kirkuk, Baghdad and Basra.
Nice map with the article. Note all the prospects:
http://www.geotimes.org/oct03/iraqmap.jpg

So, as of 2003, we have:
- 12 actively producing fields
- 18 which were developed at one time but were inactive as of 2003
- 58 known but undeveloped fields, some of which are very large
- 526 prospects, including 239 with high levels of certainty

Lastly, if we assume that Iraq's proven reserves (115 Bbbl) are based just on developed fields, then those 115 Bbbl are based just on 30 fields (for an average of 3.8 Bbbl/field). With another 58 being known, and with another 526 prospects, it should be no surprise many are saying there's more oil there than Saudi Arabia.

[Kim Jong Tha Illest]

I took 2.5 years of computer programming. I have degrees in Geography and Urban Planning. I do geographic information systems for a living. Not to mention that I've been an armchair economist and technologist for years.

The history of economics and technology has always been that we find new ways of doing things using new technology well before the old way has exhausted its resources.

Buddy, the Industrial Revolution is still only ~250 years old. We're in uncharted waters here. The threat of global environmental catastrophe is unprecedented in human history.

[Isra'il Yahya]

Okay, it is probably true that there is far more oil out there than we can possibly think of. The issue here is that these fields will not be active long enough to offset a general decline in quality of life, scarcity of resources, and other realities. These resources will not stop the peaking of existing, highly productive oil sources. These same resources will also not fuel our economy based on exponential growth.

Sanity would demand that we transition of a steady state economy and use resources to develop more efficient planning and use of resources including mass transit. Most of humanity is not sane and will drag down the rest of us concerned with just the basics of life.

[Thinker]

Be sure to rush out to your local newsstand today to catch a copy of the Wall Street Journal.

--> WSJ teaser (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121554950187436783.html?mod=todays_us_nonsub_page_one) <--
Wildcatters Plunge Into North Iraq
By Neil King Jr.

TAWKE, Iraq -- The Canadians are squeezing oil from sand. The Brazilians want to nurse it up through miles of seawater, sandstone and salt. But here in the far north of Iraq, oil is literally bubbling to the surface.

Oil executives lament that the age of "easy oil" is over. It isn't over here. For companies that have stumbled into this corner of Iraq known as Kurdistan, it's an era that has just begun.

"Look at this," said Magne Normann, Middle East director for DNO International ASA of Norway, as he stood beside a pond of oil oozing up on ...
There's a photo gallery (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121552761878735885.html) accompanying the article which non-subscribers can read.

Check it out - oil everywhere!

http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OB-BU281_kurdoi_20080708110432.jpg
Sizable natural seeps of oil are uncommon anywhere in the world these days. In Iraq, however, they have often tipped off explorers to large pockets of oil underground.

Mr. Normann, left, admires one of the many natural oil seeps near the village of Tawke, just miles from the border with Turkey. These seeps first drew DNO's attention to this corner of Iraq.

Oil oozing out the sides of the rocks!
http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OB-BU286_kurdoi_20080708110740.jpg
More than 25 companies from around the world are now prospecting in Kurdistan, making the area one of the liveliest exploration zones in the oil-rich Middle East.

Left, oil seeps from a rock ledge northwest of Erbil.

[President Barbicane]

Iraq is just about the only place in the world where oil exports can grow. The question is: Will increasing exports from Iraq offset declines elsewhere? The answer to that question will in many ways determine just how interesting the next few years will be.

[Thinker]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7708744

Iraq to resume oil exploration after 20 year pause
Reuters
Thursday August 7 2008
By Wisam Mohammed

BAGHDAD (AFP) — Iraq said on Friday it was resuming exploration of its immense oil reserves after a break of nearly 20 years due to crippling UN sanctions, saying it hopes to double its proven deposits of crude.

"Today the Iraqi oil ministry celebrates a return to work by Iraqi oil exploration teams after 20 years of interruption," ministry spokesman Assim Jihad told AFP.

Oil Minister Hussein Hussein al-Shahristani was to attend a ceremony to mark the event at the Al-Garraf field near Nasiriyah, 350 kilometres (220 miles) south of Baghdad, Jihad said.

He said the ministry would deploy three exploration teams trained abroad in the latest techniques.

OPEC member Iraq hopes the squads will uncover deposits that will enable it to double its proven oil reserves, currently standing at 115 billion barrels of crude.

After the regime of now executed dictator Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in August 1990, the United Nations imposed a strict oil embargo on Iraq, forcing it to cease exploration and cut back drastically on exports.

A UN "oil-for-food" programme between 1996 and 2003 allowed Baghdad to sell oil in exchange for humanitarian goods it lacked because of the sanctions.

However Saddam's government allegedly embezzled millions of dollars from the scheme, sparking a scandal that caused major embarrassment to the United Nations.

Iraq now wants to ramp up output by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the current average production of 2.5 million bpd, about equal to the amount being pumped before the US-led invasion of March 2003.

Exports of 2.11 million bpd currently form the bulk of the war-torn nation's revenues, and the oil ministry is keen to raise capacity over the next five years to 4.5 million bpd.

On Tuesday, a US government report said Iraq was amassing a huge budget surplus of soaring oil export revenues but spending little on reconstruction, leaving the financial burden on the United States.

Counting Baghdad's actual budget balance for 2005 to 2007, and the projected budget of 2008, Iraq would have amassed a surplus of up to 79.3 billion dollars on the back of high prices, the Government Accounting Office said.

But little of that money is going toward maintaining and rebuilding key civil infrastructure, it said.

The report said Iraq's capital spending has been hampered by the lack of trained personnel, weak budgeting and procurement processes, and ongoing violence across the country.

At the end of June, the oil ministry threw open six oilfields and two gas fields for international bidding by 41 companies, the contracts for which are expected to be signed in June next year.

The deals, which are service contracts only, pave the way for energy firms based abroad to return to Iraq 36 years after Saddam threw them out.

[Thinker]

So far, the Americans haven't been the big winners in Iraq's oil field bidding rounds. Instead it's been pretty well distributed among European, Chinese, Russian and American companies.

BBC (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8409473.stm)
Saturday, 12 December 2009
Iraq oil capacity 'to reach 12m barrels per day'

Iraq's oil capacity could reach 12 million barrels per day (bpd) in six years, the country's oil minister says.

Hussein al-Shahristani told reporters in Baghdad that oil producers would not necessarily operate at full capacity, but would take into account demand.

Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, has a capacity of 12.5m bpd.

Earlier, a joint bid by Russian and Norwegian oil firms won the contract for the "supergiant" West Qurna field, said to have reserves of 13bn barrels.

Lukoil and Statoil will get $1.15 a barrel and will work to raise output from West Qurna Phase 2, in the Basra region, to 1.8m bpd. In June, a winning bid to develop another Iraqi field received $2 a barrel.

On Friday, the contract to develop the 12.6bn-barrel Majnoon field in southern Iraq was won by a consortium led by Shell. It also pledged to increase daily production to 1.8m barrels, up from only 46,000.

Rights for the eastern Halfaya field, with 4.1bn barrels of reserves, went to a consortium led by the Chinese state oil company, CNPC.

But the East Baghdad field, part of which lies under the city's Sadr City area, and another in the Diyala province attracted no bids.

[...]