PDA

View Full Version : Russia among to 5 in terms of GDP by 2020


Petyr Baelish
07-17-2007, 02:53 AM
Russia among top 5 in terms of GDP by 2020 (http://en.rian.ru/russia/20070609/66970013.html)

ST. PETERSBURG, June 9 (RIA Novosti) - A first Russian deputy prime minister set the goal of making the country one of the five largest economies in terms of GDP by 2020 Saturday.

In his report on the national economic strategy until 2020, which opened the 11th economic forum in St. Petersburg, Sergei Ivanov, seen by many as a possible presidential successor after 2008, said the economic goal could be achieved through a liberal economic policy based on high technologies, broader and transparent investment, and high competitiveness.

In the past few years, Russia's GDP has been exceeding 6%. President Vladimir Putin has set the goal of doubling the GDP by 2010.

"GDP per capita by consumer spending parity will be around $30,000 in 2005 prices [by 2020], compared to the current $12,000," Ivanov forecasted.

Investment

Ivanov said Russia was ahead of the majority of emerging economies in terms of foreign investment. As an example, the official said accumulated foreign investment in 2006 topped $150 billion.

"In the first quarter of 2007, we received nearly $10 billion in direct foreign investment," he said. Capital inflow is expected to reach $60 billion in the first half of this year, Ivanov said, adding that the figure exceeded indicators in other countries with transitional economy.

"We are interested in creating a favorable environment for foreign investors," Ivanov said. "It means a transparent investment infrastructure, and further development of the stock market and the banking sector."

Competition

Encouraging fair competition will also contribute to faster economic development, and this requires a long-term development strategy, the first deputy premier said. "The strategy must seek to modernize protection of competition and anti-monopoly measures, and to clear barriers for new Russian and foreign businesses entering the market," he said.

Ivanov said foreign companies would have easier access to the Russian market after the country joined the World Trade Organization (WTO). "Further steps here require an agreement on a strategic partnership with the European Union (EU) and an upgrading of regulatory institutions," he said.

Innovations

Ivanov said Russia might become one of the world's leading innovation centers.

"I am convinced that Russia is capable of becoming a leading world innovation center," he said. "We will set up a special commission to promote breakthrough innovative projects."

Special technological and economic zones will be formed to speed up development in the area, the first deputy premier said, but added that relevant professional training was also required to achieve the goal.

He called for overhauling the education system by applying foreign experience, and setting up business schools and government administration colleges that would be up to international standards.

Ivanov also said Russia must form a society based on information technologies. "It is not an abstract term," he said. "IT technologies must become part of everyday life."

State holdings

As an example of innovative economic development, Ivanov cited state holdings, currently being formed to consolidate state and private assets in the aircraft building, shipbuilding and nuclear industries. Ivanov has been put in charge of these projects.

"Such holdings allow the state to buy out part of the assets from private businessmen - for a market price and not in the form of expropriation," he said. "These will be public corporations that could take up ambitious projects and compete on global markets."

Ivanov also said that part of the currently formed state holdings could eventually be floated. "The goal here is not only to attract funds but also to become truly modern public companies, with both Russian and foreign shareholders," he said.

The official said one of the targets was to promote Russia's civilian aircraft industry to the third place, with 10% of the world market by 2020. "We also expect the shipbuilding sector to triple production," he added.

Substantial efforts will also be put into nuclear energy, Russia's key export technology, he said.

Up to 90% of the profit in the country's nuclear sector comes from nuclear fuel, power and service exports, but Russia also seeks to export more uranium.

Russia has launched projects to build floating nuclear power plants. In April, Russia laid the foundation for the first floating plant in the northern city of Severodvinsk and is expected to build another six plants within a decade.

"Only our country has started building floating power plants with nuclear reactors. Nuclear power will have a considerably larger share in Russia's energy balance," Ivanov said.

A senior Russian nuclear official, Sergei Krysov, said earlier this week that 20 countries had shown interest in floating nuclear power plants.

Warka
07-17-2007, 02:56 AM
Substantial efforts will also be put into nuclear energy, Russia's key export technology, he said.

Up to 90% of the profit in the country's nuclear sector comes from nuclear fuel, power and service exports, but Russia also seeks to export more uranium.

Russia has launched projects to build floating nuclear power plants. In April, Russia laid the foundation for the first floating plant in the northern city of Severodvinsk and is expected to build another six plants within a decade.

"Only our country has started building floating power plants with nuclear reactors. Nuclear power will have a considerably larger share in Russia's energy balance," Ivanov said.

A senior Russian nuclear official, Sergei Krysov, said earlier this week that 20 countries had shown interest in floating nuclear power plants.

Excellent news. While the US refuses to invest in this technology, others will lead the way. Good for them.

Sulla the Dictator
07-18-2007, 06:57 AM
Implausible, but best of luck.

Petyr Baelish
07-18-2007, 08:08 AM
Implausible

If sometime in the 1920s one were to suggest to an Ger,an or British political analyst that Russia, then the laughingstock of Europe, would become a superpower by 1945 . The West's habit of stupidly underestimating Russia's resilience and potential always works out in Russia's favor.

Sulla the Dictator
07-18-2007, 10:24 AM
If sometime in the 1920s one were to suggest to an Ger,an or British political analyst that Russia, then the laughingstock of Europe, would become a superpower by 1945 . The West's habit of stupidly underestimating Russia's resilience and potential always works out in Russia's favor.

I think that one would honestly have to ask why Russia 'benefits' so often from low expectations. It is expected for a Slavophile to take offense at Western skepticism, I'm sure. But even an admirer of Russia must admit that the Russian state suffers from SERIOUS economic and social problems that can't be solved by yet another in a long line of Russian "five year plans".

There are a great number of differences from 1945. Namely, this time Russia isn't competing against JUST the distant US. Its competing against an Asian market advancing by leaps and bounds which not only dwarf its economic and technological capabilities, but BORDER it and will almost certainly have conflicts of interest with it in the future.

This doesn't even take into account that we are still here.

Macrobius
07-18-2007, 02:21 PM
I guess it comes down to who their large trading partners are going to be. Large economies come about because of trade with other, similar large economies. 'Large' in this case means having a fair fraction tied up in the more industrial, technological sectors.

Petyr Baelish
07-18-2007, 05:49 PM
I think that one would honestly have to ask why Russia 'benefits' so often from low expectations.

I am not sure what you're insinuating. The historical record seems to show quite clearly that Western politicians and generals, from Napoleon to Hitler, who've regarded Russia with an undue sense of irreverence have had their expectations dashed in the end.

It is expected for a Slavophile to take offense at Western skepticism, I'm sure.

Skepticism of an optimistic economic prognosis for Russia is, in and of itself, hardly sufficient reason for even the most ardent Slavophile to become offended. It simply appears to me that your nay-saying is motivated more by Russophobia than an objective examination of the relevant economic indicators.

But even an admirer of Russia must admit that the Russian state suffers from SERIOUS economic and social problems that can't be solved by yet another in a long line of Russian "five year plans".

I don't disagree with that. Russia does suffer from very serious socioeconomic problems, which will take a long time and a large amount of money to fully address. I don't think anyone is suggesting that Russian living standards will be up to par with those of Canada or Norway by 2020. On the other hand, during the past decade, the Russian economy has been growing at one of the highest rates in the world, Russia is dominant in certain markets (and in some, the only real player), and continues to expand and diversify its economy. Russia's economy is already the second largest in Europe, and I see no reason to doubt that it will be among the five largest economies in the world by 2020.

Namely, this time Russia isn't competing against JUST the distant US.

So Russia is incapable of economic growth because it faces competition from other countries?

Its competing against an Asian market

Russia does not face any serious economic competition from emerging Asian markets at the moment because its current role is primarily as an exporter of natural commodities (China and India combined don't have even a fraction of Russia's mineral and energy resources). Moreover, Russian export products fill a niche that the Asians would be hard-pressed to squeeze them out of - for instance, the Russians specialize in advanced military and aerospace technology which they'll sell to the highest bidder, and the Chinese in electronic gadgets and other consumer goods aimed primarily at the American and Japanese markets.

dwarf its economic and technological capabilities

That's beyond hyperbole. Russia's technological capabilities are definitely proportionately superior to those of China, and to compare them with those of India, a third-world basket case where more than 40% of the population can't afford to eat is ridiculous.

[Russia and the Asian economies] will almost certainly have conflicts of interest with it in the future.

This is analogous to saying 'The EU is doomed to economic stagnation because it faces competition from the US'. Just as BMW and Ford cater to different demographics and markets (BMW to the self-respecting and affluent driver, and Ford to the typical American consumer who has little regard for quality), Russian and Asian products fill different niches and cater to different segments of the world economy.

This doesn't even take into account that we are still here.

So, how exactly is the US going to put a dampener on Russian economic growth - by putting missiles in Georgia or criticizing the Russian government on its 'human rights' record, perhaps?

Transcendentally Challenged
07-19-2007, 10:00 AM
What's the use of economic growth when governed by a bunch of crooks and self-proclaimed autocrats/kleptocrats?

Cuba under Batista also experienced serious economic growth.

whydoyouwanttoknow
07-19-2007, 10:04 AM
Wouldn't GDP per capita be an actual better goal?

Petyr Baelish
07-22-2007, 02:01 AM
What's the use of economic growth when governed by a bunch of crooks and self-proclaimed autocrats/kleptocrats?

You'll be hard-pressed to find a large, powerful country that isn't govern by crooks and kleptocrats.

Cuba under Batista also experienced serious economic growth.

Fair enough. What's your prognosis of Russia's socioeconomic future?

Transcendentally Challenged
07-22-2007, 01:09 PM
You'll be hard-pressed to find a large, powerful country that isn't govern by crooks and kleptocrats.


True. Yet usually these crooks follow at least the rules they set themselves so as at least to keep the facade and garantee some stability.


Fair enough. What's your prognosis of Russia's socioeconomic future?

I'm not that much into economy, but current period of economic growth reminds me of the Brezhnev-era when crises in the Middle East led to a skyrocketing increase of oil prices. The direct outcome of Soviet economy becoming dependent on oil exports and oil prices and its failure to diversify and modernize economy and work out some plan B, resulted in the economic collapse of the Soviet Union.

Warka
07-22-2007, 04:41 PM
Yet usually these crooks follow at least the rules they set themselves so as at least to keep the facade and garantee some stability.

C'mon, Theocide, even this is naive. The US, for instance, is the planet's largest "human rights" violator, wages terror even as it fights a "War on Terror™", etc., etc., etc. Crooks don't play by any rules.

Thermonuclear_Warrior
07-22-2007, 06:50 PM
If sometime in the 1920s one were to suggest to an Ger,an or British political analyst that Russia, then the laughingstock of Europe, would become a superpower by 1945 . The West's habit of stupidly underestimating Russia's resilience and potential always works out in Russia's favor.

I am not sure what you're insinuating. The historical record seems to show quite clearly that Western politicians and generals, from Napoleon to Hitler, who've regarded Russia with an undue sense of irreverence have had their expectations dashed in the end.


There is a big difference between economic and military strength.

Cyprian
07-22-2007, 07:30 PM
True. Yet usually these crooks follow at least the rules they set themselves so as at least to keep the facade and garantee some stability.



I'm not that much into economy, but current period of economic growth reminds me of the Brezhnev-era when crises in the Middle East led to a skyrocketing increase of oil prices. The direct outcome of Soviet economy becoming dependent on oil exports and oil prices and its failure to diversify and modernize economy and work out some plan B, resulted in the economic collapse of the Soviet Union.The difference is that Russia is much more diversified now, particularly in selling military technology and in natural resources other than oil. Furthermore, the high price of oil right now is probably more stable than it was in the '70's.