Is Canada's future leftist?

[raven]

Source: http://en.wikinews.org/wiki/Poll_predicts_another_Liberal_Party_minority_government_in_Canada

"In its analysis of the results, Pollara commented that "[t]he electorate has rarely been so polarized as in this election. If only rural Canadians were voting, we would have a Majority Conservative Government. If only urban Canadians were voting, we would have a Minority Liberal Government. Women would elect a Liberal Majority, while men would select a Conservative Minority. Young Canadians, 18-24, would easily elect an NDP majority"

This poll was done back in Dec 17/18 mind you so its outdated. But still, just compare the voting patterns. Now Men tend to vote Conservative and women tend to vote Liberal... that makes sense. However look at how the young Canadians (many of whom don't vote btw :D) tend to have a lean towards the NDP. That is very surprising as they seem to be the third party with no chance in this two-horse race. What does this mean? Is the future of Canada even more pink/leftist than it is now? It comes as no shock to me that the young'uns are leftists but to this degree?

[Hakluyt]

Nah, "a man not liberal at twenty has no heart, but a man not conservative at thirty has no brain"

Anyway, it seems by all indications that unless something crazy happens the conservatives will easily have a minority, maybe even a majority, and the NDP will pick up a lot of liberal slack. A move away from the centre would be great - less petty economic controversy, more ideological discussion. I'd rather leftist politics predominate than pointless centrist non-issues

[raven]

Nah, "a man not liberal at twenty has no heart, but a man not conservative at thirty has no brain"
So I have no heart? :D


Anyway, it seems by all indications that unless something crazy happens the conservatives will easily have a minority, maybe even a majority, and the NDP will pick up a lot of liberal slack. A move away from the centre would be great - less petty economic controversy, more ideological discussion. I'd rather leftist politics predominate than pointless centrist non-issues
I predict a Conservative Minority government. To be honest I don't think I trust Harper enough to want a Majority government. Harper has in the past wanted to back the U.S in the whole Iraq conflict. I am not really all that comfortable about a leader who is going to be all buddy-buddy with George Dubya. That said I don't like the Liberals either. A conservative minority is probably ideal. However I fear that if the conservatives do get a minority that the promises Harper made about hardening sentences for criminals probably won't see the light of day as the socially liberal Liberals, NDP and Bloc would all gang up on the Conservatives on this issue. In the end with politics in its current state it pretty much seems like a lose-lose situation.

[Hakluyt]

totally agreed about Harper.

one benefit of the conservatives coming to power though will be a reduction in the "oppositionist" mentality of canadian social conservatives, which tends to draw them to the american republican/libertarian model (because they actually have power - this gives them with something to look up to, but also presents them with an insecurity complex as canadians, who havent seen conservative power for a long time). being forced to re-canadianise the conservative movement and focus more on the particular tory history of this country, to give it lasting appeal, with be a great thing for anglo-canadian identity on the whole

[Faustian Dreams]

This opinion may be met with quite a bit of antagonism by many of you, and I should suspect capitalists and socialists alike would rather not have anything to do with one another in general.

From my observations, there is a trend in modern politics:

Capitalism-->Republic/Democracy-->The Left; be it socially, politically, or economically.

Reinstate Monarchy.

[Hakluyt]

Enhance and re-expand its office, rather; we are still a Monarchy in constitutional terms

[Blaphbee]

To the thread's question itself: most likely, but as for this election, I still stand by my own prediction that all this ridiculous hoopla centred around this supposed surge in popularity of Harper's I keep hearing about is simply smoke up our asses. People may "want change", but polling 1500 random people on the street and then turning around and telling us that this defines the mentality of the entire nation is hilarious.

It's going to be another minority government for the Liberals, with a slightly larger representation of the other major parties. Something tells me that the Bloc is going to get themselves a few more seats this time around, but we'll just have to wait and see.

Thus, I look forward to having this same discussion with y'all in another year, when the next election is called. Hopefully Martin will be booted by that point - he's running his party into the ground (as if they needed the help).

[Blaphbee]

Another thing I notice is that, the immediate life situation a voter finds themself in defines their voting preference to a T. Students are the only people who pay any attention at all to the NDP, blue-collars waffle back-and-forth bewteen the Cons and the Libs whenever one or the other party gives them shot at getting themselves out of their immediate financial hardships, Quebec is going to conceivably be forever divided on the separation issue, and the hippies will continue to support the utterly impotent Green party until their deaths.

No one can think farther than five minutes in front of them. This is why democracies fail: people are not given choices which reflect a long-term survival, only what spacy promises can be made and reneged on in the here and now; further, people are too braindead to be able to consider anything beyond their immediate personal concerns, thus they continue to fragment the nation and drive it into this perpetual self-conflict being waged over how individuals can be most comfortable, right now.

Popularity contests are not a sensible way to run a nation.

EUGENICS NOW

[raven]

To the thread's question itself: most likely, but as for this election, I still stand by my own prediction that all this ridiculous hoopla centred around this supposed surge in popularity of Harper's I keep hearing about is simply smoke up our asses. People may "want change", but polling 1500 random people on the street and then turning around and telling us that this defines the mentality of the entire nation is hilarious.
Blaphee I am currently studying Statistics and survey research and that sort of thing and I am pretty sure that they would have randomly sampled the 1500 people out of the population. You can't be selecting 1500 off the street because then you can't say that it is representative of the population. Considering that their data usually includes a confidence interval (+/- 2 or 3% for eg.) and a confidence level (95%) it would have to be a random sample. You can't be using confidence intervals and confidence levels in non-random samples since that would be erroneous of them. I think that we will have a minority Conservative government. Or at least I hope its not a majority.


It's going to be another minority government for the Liberals, with a slightly larger representation of the other major parties. Something tells me that the Bloc is going to get themselves a few more seats this time around, but we'll just have to wait and see.

Thus, I look forward to having this same discussion with y'all in another year, when the next election is called. Hopefully Martin will be booted by that point - he's running his party into the ground (as if they needed the help).
I am not predicting another minority Liberal government but we shall see. The election starts tomorrow night. :D I think the PQ will have a bigger share than last year. I have lots of respect for Duceppe because he cares about french-canadians and if Quebec had independence I am willing to bet he would restrict immigration (I'm not too sure how immigration works but I think it works at the federal level, not provincially). He is a Quebecois sovereigntist.

[Hakluyt]

The Conservatives have almost double the numbers the Liberals do in Quebec right now... that will mean more Bloc wins, but taking out the Liberals there pretty much assures at least a minority. All polls tend to understate Conservative support by about 5% anyway

[Blaphbee]

Eh, I'm going to stick to my guns on this one. I think it'll be a Lib government, same as before, only a few more seats here and there for the opposition parties.

I'll be sure to kick back with a forty-pounder and watch this mess unfold tomorrow. I'm living with an NDP-fanatic who's convinced the NDP's time is due. I don't have the heart to break her own. ;)

Besides, a poll of 1500 random people does not constitute the majority opinion of a nation of 30 million plus. 30 million opinions have to be taken before you know what the nation thinks.

O' course, what the hell do I know? I'll shut up.

Anyone here keen on taking bets for the outcome?

[raven]

I'll be sure to kick back with a forty-pounder and watch this mess unfold tomorrow. I'm living with an NDP-fanatic who's convinced the NDP's time is due. I don't have the heart to break her own. ;)
She's definately a NDP-fanatic because the NDP doesn't have a chance in hell. :D The NDP may be popular among students but the voting turn-out is very low among youths aged 18-24. I must say that as a student myself I like their claims about decreasing tuition but guess what? The NDP is going to put the nation into massive debt just like they did to Ontario. I'm going to avoid voting in this election, I am not even on the voting register. :D


Besides, a poll of 1500 random people does not constitute the majority opinion of a nation of 30 million plus. 30 million opinions have to be taken before you know what the nation thinks.
A standard 1500 random poll conducted properly has a confidence interval of 2.5% (and the Conservatives lead by much more than 2.5%) and a confidence level of 95%. So it is very likely that Harper's Cons will win especially when these polls were done multiple times. We shall see. I say that there will be a Conservative minority.

[Hakluyt]

http://www.cbc.ca/canadavotes/voterstoolki...te_results.html (http://www.cbc.ca/canadavotes/voterstoolkit/studentvote2006/studentvote_results.html)

Student Vote 2006
Students choose Conservative minority
**
Canada’s elementary and high school students have voted for a Conservative minority government that could be propped up by any of the other three major parties.

The students, voting in a mock election, handed the Conservative party 128 seats, based on 31.5 per cent of the popular vote.

"(Liberal Leader) Paul Martin didn't live up to his promises," said Richard Harris, a Grade 12 student at St. Mary's Academy in Sherbrooke, N.S. "There was the whole sponsorship scandal thing. You could feel students pulling towards the Conservatives and the NDP."

About 450,000 students from Grades 5 through 12, from every province and territory in the country, took part in Student Vote 2006. Of Canada's 308 seats, 284 were represented.

The NDP came second with 64 seats. The Liberals took 52 seats, and the Bloc Québécois 34.

[Dr. No]

However look at how the young Canadians (many of whom don't vote btw :D) tend to have a lean towards the NDP. That is very surprising as they seem to be the third party with no chance in this two-horse race. What does this mean? Is the future of Canada even more pink/leftist than it is now? It comes as no shock to me that the young'uns are leftists but to this degree?

Judging from the conversations I've had with people in that age group (18-24), I'm not surprised in the least. The only thing that surprises me is that a majority would vote for the NDP and not the Green Party (apparently, according to an 18 year old girl I talked to, the current leader of the Green Party is seen as "too conservative" or something like that :rolleyes:).

What else can we expect from over 50 years of Judeo-negro pop culture?

[raven]

http://www.cbc.ca/canadavotes/voterstoolki...te_results.html (http://www.cbc.ca/canadavotes/voterstoolkit/studentvote2006/studentvote_results.html)
So I guess its safe to assume that the younger (inelgible to vote) generation has more sense than the 18-24 bracket? Considering the election results I think that the NDP had strong support among the University students and early 20-somethings. Not that I'm insulting these people because my friend is in this bracket and he voted Conservative and I refrained from voting but was rooting for a Conservative minority myself. The Liberal pwned the Cons candidate in our ridings. :( It was to be expected... my cons vote would have been a waste.

[Dr. No]

It's going to be another minority government for the Liberals, with a slightly larger representation of the other major parties. Something tells me that the Bloc is going to get themselves a few more seats this time around, but we'll just have to wait and see.

Looks like you were wrong on both counts. Liberals lost, the Bloc stayed about the same.

I think you need to apply some Windex to that crystal ball of yours. :cool:

[raven]

Looks like you were wrong on both counts. Liberals lost, the Bloc stayed about the same.

I think you need to apply some Windex to that crystal ball of yours. :cool:
The Polls were right. What did I tell you guys. I know a lot about statistics, sampling, probability, etc. They were pretty accurate.

Prediction before election (popular vote): 27 37 19 11 6
actual result: 30.3 36.3 17.5 10.5 4.5

Liberal support went up, Cons slightly down, NDP went down a bit, Bloc slightly down and Green went down a bit. Their confidence interval was around 2.5 so I'd say these statistics are quite accurate except for the Liberals. I think the reason why the Liberal turnout was bigger than expected is because people were afraid of a Conservative Majority. I predited this myself. I did however predict more seats for the Cons. I didn't think they'd only get 124.

[Dr. No]

The Polls were right. What did I tell you guys. I know a lot about statistics, sampling, probability, etc. They were pretty accurate.

Speaking of fortune-telling...

http://predictawinner.com/

[Blaphbee]

Looks like you were wrong on both counts. Liberals lost, the Bloc stayed about the same.

I think you need to apply some Windex to that crystal ball of yours. :cool:
Yeah, yeah, quiet you. ;)