Election Day

[Hakluyt]

For the third time in four years the Tory squires prepare to dominate the countryside while the Whig merchants defend their city mandates.

My prediction: Conservative minority, 308 seats divided as follows:

144 Conservative
70 Liberal
53 Bloc Quebecois
37 NDP
2 Green (Vancouver Centre and West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast)
2 Independent (Bill Casey, Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley, and Andre Arthur in Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier - the Conservatives don't run candidates against him.)


Last few polls:

2008.10.13 (Angus Reid)

Bloc: 9
Conservative: 37
Green: 7
Liberal: 27
NDP: 20


2008.10.13 (EKOS)

Bloc: 9.8
Conservative: 34.8
Green: 9.6
Liberal: 26.4
NDP: 19.4


2008.10.12 (EKOS)

Bloc: 10
Conservative: 34
Green: 11
Liberal: 26
NDP: 18

[harjit]

I'm in Ottawa (Hakluyt-land) this week, and voted for the Green Party.

Looks like Harper is way ahead at the moment.

[Jake Featherston]

Oddly enough, if I lived in Canada, I'd probably vote Green too (albeit due to a lack of rightist options).

Based on the story at this LINK (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_T_VQQBHNsw&refer=home), it appears Hak's predictions are basically coming true.

[Kodos]

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Oddly enough, if I lived in Canada, I'd probably vote Green too (albeit due to a lack of rightist options).

This makes no sense, especially in a semi proportional representation system.

[Jake Featherston]

This makes no sense, especially in a semi proportional representation system.

Canada doesn't have a semi-proportional system; they elect by district, just like we do (I'm not sure about their Upper House; I think it may be a largely appointive body) In any event, I'm not sure why it matters either way. I wouldn't lower myself to voting for the CuntServitor party, nor for the Liberals. The New Democratic Party (I think its called) and the Greens both have some decent stands on a few issues, so I'd prefer them (more likely the Greens) to a neo-con party, or the PC maniacs of the Liberal Party. Of course it would depend on who was actually on the ballot in my district (or "riding," as I gather they call them). The Canadians have a Libertarian Party, much like our own, and I'd probably vote for them, if they fielded a candidate where I lived. But I don't think they field candidates for many seats.

[DonkeyKong]

Hak,

your predictions are almsot spot-on. The Liberals got eaten up.

Jake,

The New Democrats are nuts. They're the Democrats you guys have right now. Almost everyone here who says they'll vote green doesn't bother to leave the house to vote, hence rating decent in the polls but not winning a single seat.

The liberals have Bob Rae, who would be deputy Prime Minister AFAIK. (he was the premier for ontario, elected in 1990) That's almost the equivalent of Vice President in the US. Everyone in Ontario hates him. People in Ontario were weary of the liberals this time around because of him.

I wouldn't vote liberal because they usually lie about....everything. GST, party infighting, promising to fight the conservatives (while allowing them to pass legislation when they can block it).

There's a lot of things I'd like to fix about the conservatie party, but I don't think they're as nutty as the other parties.

[Hakluyt]

Final results:

143 Conservative (37.64%, +1.37%)
76 Liberal (26.23%, -4.0%)
50 Bloc Quebecois (9.98%, -0.50%)
37 NDP (18.19%, +0.79%)
0 Green (6.95%, +2.47%)
2 Independents re-elected (both conservative-leaning)

The only unxpected results were that Newfoundland voted entirely liberal (under the "save our welfare cheques" campaign) and that the Greens didn't keep Vancouver West. Lesson: Green supporters are lazy bastards. Turnout is expected to be an all-time low, in the high 50 range. So, re: my predictions, 1 fewer for the Bloc, 1 fewer for the Conservatives (I expected them to get 1 seat in Newfoundland), and no Greens means I underestimated the Liberals by 6 seats.

Notice that the total vote share for each party barely changed. Canada's political future lies firmly in identity politics: the Liberals cannot do worse than 20% (the loyal immigrant + anglophobic bobo votes), and the Conservatives cannot do better than 40% (they already have the clear majority of the Anglo vote, who are looking to the Conservative party for pan-English Canadian unity; but sadly this is not exactly a growing constituency). The Bloc will remain exactly where it is. The only movement in the next 10-20 years will be between the Greens and the NDP as they fight over the Liberal scraps.

[Hakluyt]

Canada doesn't have a semi-proportional system; they elect by district, just like we do (I'm not sure about their Upper House; I think it may be a largely appointive body) In any event, I'm not sure why it matters either way. I wouldn't lower myself to voting for the CuntServitor party, nor for the Liberals. The New Democratic Party (I think its called) and the Greens both have some decent stands on a few issues, so I'd prefer them (more likely the Greens) to a neo-con party, or the PC maniacs of the Liberal Party. Of course it would depend on who was actually on the ballot in my district (or "riding," as I gather they call them). The Canadians have a Libertarian Party, much like our own, and I'd probably vote for them, if they fielded a candidate where I lived. But I don't think they field candidates for many seats.
The Conservative Party in Canada isn't defined by its foreign policy the way the Republican Party seems to be, so neo-conservatism is basically moot here. The former Reform Party/Canadian Alliance was ultra-neo-conservative economically, but they have been moderated by the Ontario-based Progressive Conservatives since 2004, and are now basically a typical centrist party. The main reason they are preferable to the Liberals or NDP is that both of these parties want to increase immigration and refugee quotas (while Canada already takes in more per capita than any country on Earth), and the Conservatives do not. So at least for now Conservative government is existentially necessary.

I vote Green myself, but that's mainly because I want a 5-party system. I wouldn't vote for the party under Elizabeth May if I actually thought they would win, because she's an immigration fanatic herself, and really just a lukewarm bourgeois environmentalist (she was formerly director of the Sierra Club). Serious environmentalists around here (Greenpeace et al) dont support her.

[Hakluyt]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/0/0e/Canada2008.PNG

[harjit]

I vote Green myself, but that's mainly because I want a 5-party system. I wouldn't vote for the party under Elizabeth May if I actually thought they would win, because she's an immigration fanatic herself, and really just a lukewarm bourgeois environmentalist (she was formerly director of the Sierra Club). Serious environmentalists around here (Greenpeace et al) dont support her.

I hadn't realized that. (I'm also not particularly pro immigration, contrary to what people here probably think, and hadn't realized May was a fanatic).

The perils of being a tourist-voter, I guess.

In my riding, Ottawa South, the Green and Conservative and NDP candidates all had Middle-Eastern sounding names. It's not a particularly "ethnic" area (at least any more than the rest of the city).

[raven]

Re: Hakluyt: Foreign Policy isn't big in Canada but Harper's Conservatives support the war in Afghanistan (despite their promise of a 2011 pullout) and we all know that Harper and the Reform/Alliance were all pro War on Turr and Coalition of the Willing. They just keep that stuff on the down 'lo now because they know that they will lose a lot of support in Canada if they don't. Harper had to moderate his platform considerably in order to attract the masses in a largely liberal country. If Harper ever had a majority, I wouldn't trust him.

The Liberals, NDP and Greens are all worse immigration (not that I mind living around Harold and Kumars. Canadian WN fearmonger about the minorities swamping them even though I've lived relatively peacefully in a majority minority area for most of my life. Their doomsday fears are largely irrational. Though I do realize that a higher proportion of visible minorities would make it that much more difficult to reform human rights laws and reverse the group identity politics trend) and human rights wise but let's face it. Canada's demographic destiny is already set and Canada will always have the draconian Human Rights laws in the books because the Conservatives will never dare reducing immigration and a majority federal government is not enough to change the Human Rights laws in the Canadian Charter. You need overwhelming support federally AND provincially to change the Charter I believe. Pierre Trudeau and his henchmen already did their damage and Brian Mulroney's Tories didn't help things.

Hak,

your predictions are almsot spot-on. The Liberals got eaten up.

Jake,

The New Democrats are nuts. They're the Democrats you guys have right now. Almost everyone here who says they'll vote green doesn't bother to leave the house to vote, hence rating decent in the polls but not winning a single seat.

The liberals have Bob Rae, who would be deputy Prime Minister AFAIK. (he was the premier for ontario, elected in 1990) That's almost the equivalent of Vice President in the US. Everyone in Ontario hates him. People in Ontario were weary of the liberals this time around because of him.

I wouldn't vote liberal because they usually lie about....everything. GST, party infighting, promising to fight the conservatives (while allowing them to pass legislation when they can block it).

There's a lot of things I'd like to fix about the conservatie party, but I don't think they're as nutty as the other parties.I would fall within that category. I had the intention of voting Green but then I was legitimately busy all day yesterday with school. My schooling takes priority to ensuring that the Greens get an extra couple dollars in public funding for my vote (it's Liberal country here so the Greens had no chance in hell of winning anyway).

I must say though that it's quite the shocker that the Conservatives actually were quite competitive in some heavily brown/asian GTA ridings. They almost beat this one hot Punjabi Liberal chick in Brampton. They even won the Mississauga-Erindale riding with some white Conservative dude over the Liberal Arab. That is huge. Are visible minorities warming up more to the Conservatives or is it just that the white people are voting a lot for the conservatives that's making the difference?

Naturally I'm happy that the Conservatives have to settle for a minority, which is what I expected. I don't trust those neo-cons. The Conservatives did real well showing that they could be competitive in a number of majority minority ridings but due to the demography, which is about 20% non-white and growing (16-17% visible minority + 3% Aboriginals), the Conservatives will never have a chance to win a majority in Canada ever again. The only way they'd be able to manage that is if Quebec seperates from Canada. The French-Canadians are our life savers. If It wasn't for them, we'd have a Neo-Con tyrant running things as he pleases with a majority government.

[DonkeyKong]

I must say though that it's quite the shocker that the Conservatives actually were quite competitive in some heavily brown/asian GTA ridings. They almost beat this one hot Punjabi Liberal chick in Brampton. They even won the Mississauga-Erindale riding with some white Conservative dude over the Liberal Arab. That is huge. Are visible minorities warming up more to the Conservatives or is it just that the white people are voting a lot for the conservatives that's making the difference?

That was part of the campaign strategy this time around. Liberals typically cater to immigrants, but the party has been asking the immigrants "What have the liberals done for you lately?" In recent times, almost nothing.

[raven]

That was part of the campaign strategy this time around. Liberals typically cater to immigrants, but the party has been asking the immigrants "What have the liberals done for you lately?" In recent times, almost nothing.How would the Conservatives be more beneficial for these non-white immigrants than the Liberals though? The Liberals promise them even more immigration so that means they'll be able to get their relatives from India, China, etc. quicker with the Liberals. The Liberals are even more Human Rights/Minority preferential treatment friendly. Economic wise, non-white immigrants will generally still have shitty pay (since the system relies on exploiting them for cheap labor in the service sector and factories) whether they are under a Liberal or a Conservative government. It doesn't matter either way.

[DonkeyKong]

How would the Conservatives be more beneficial for these non-white immigrants than the Liberals though?

You got me. All I heard is that this was the strategy they used. What the heck do new immigrants know?