Burrhus
09-11-2010, 06:18 PM
I recently experienced an object lesson in the tail-ends of a probability distribution.
I poured out the top half of a box of raisin bran into a sealable container which I use in lieu of pouring the cereal daily from the box. There were plenty of raisins in the container. When I later poured the bottom contents of the box into the container, there were almost no raisins.
Now the 'expected probability' would be the opposite result. The raisins 'should have' sunk to the bottom (and that is what I normally discover).
But there you have it...a tale of the tails.
And the moral of the story? Expectations and reality have a nasty way of confounding us. Bet on normality but be prepared for those tail-ends.
I poured out the top half of a box of raisin bran into a sealable container which I use in lieu of pouring the cereal daily from the box. There were plenty of raisins in the container. When I later poured the bottom contents of the box into the container, there were almost no raisins.
Now the 'expected probability' would be the opposite result. The raisins 'should have' sunk to the bottom (and that is what I normally discover).
But there you have it...a tale of the tails.
And the moral of the story? Expectations and reality have a nasty way of confounding us. Bet on normality but be prepared for those tail-ends.