South Africa's population projected to shrink after 2030

[Petr]

In spite of all their dysfunction, the South African Blacks are the most "Westernized" Blacks of Africa, closest to first-world culture and standards, and this can be seen their birthrates.

(Close contact with civilization and its material trappings do not yet necessarily make one very civilized, as the American Blacks show. In pre-PC times, Western observers often thought that "half-civilized" peoples were the most immoral ones of all, being in the cultural limbo of having lost their primitive simplicity but having not achieved truly functioning developed society either.)

South African Whites and Asians already have TFRs below the replacement rate, and now the fertility of Black majority population has clearly fallen below three children per woman as well.

http://www.timeslive.co.za/local/article871410.ece/South-Africas-population-to-shrink-after-2030

South Africa's population to shrink after 2030

Jan 25, 2011 9:56 AM | Times

Estimates show that from 2030 onwards, South Africa will have a decreasing population. This is according to the 2009/10 South Africa Survey published by the South African Institute of Race Relations in Johannesburg this week.


Between 2010 and 2030, South Africa’s population will grow, although at a decreasing rate each year.

By 2030 South Africa’s population will be 53.81 million. The population will then decrease to 53.74 million by 2035, and to 53.28 million by 2040, according to data from the Institute of Futures Research at the University of Stellenbosch cited in the Survey.

One of the main reasons for this is the long term impact of HIV/AIDS.

In South Africa, the number of deaths in a year is making up an increasingly higher proportion of the number of births. In 1985, deaths were 25% of births. This was expected by the Actuarial Society of South Africa to increase to 87% of births by 2021.

Thuthukani Ndebele, a researcher at the Institute, said, ‘If this trend continues, there will soon be more deaths than births in South Africa. It is evident that the HIV/AIDS pandemic has resulted in an increasing number of deaths. These deaths are mostly among people in the child-bearing age group, which will result in decreasing numbers of births.’

However, a lower fertility rate will also contribute to population shrinkage. Between 2001 and 2010, South Africa’s fertility rate decreased from 2.86 to 2.38 births per woman.

By 2040, the fertility rate will have dropped to 1.98 births per woman. This is lower than the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman, which is needed for the population to reproduce itself.

Ndebele said, ‘Lower fertility rates are related to an increase in access to education and contraceptives, which results in women having fewer children.

‘A combination of increasing deaths as a result of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, as well as lower fertility rates will result in population shrinkage after 2030. This can be positive as there will be less strain on resources in South Africa. However, it will also be negative, as there will be fewer people to contribute to the economy and its internal consumer markets.’

[Dan Dare]

One of the main reasons for this is the long term impact of HIV/AIDS.

"... It is evident that the HIV/AIDS pandemic has resulted in an increasing number of deaths. These deaths are mostly among people in the child-bearing age group, which will result in decreasing numbers of births.’

It's unclear how this squares with the contention that "... South African Blacks are the most "Westernized" Blacks of Africa, closest to first-world culture and standards, and this can be seen their birthrates."

Declines in western birthrates are not usually associated with HIV/AIDS.

[Thomas_Sankara]

It's unclear how this squares with the contention that "... South African Blacks are the most "Westernized" Blacks of Africa, closest to first-world culture and standards, and this can be seen their birthrates."

Declines in western birthrates are not usually associated with HIV/AIDS.

Idk, in places like Lithuania and Latvia, it's suicide, high crime, illnesses related to alcoholism, and cancer (most likely from the poor environment)...

...Western civilization is an illness.

[Sheza]

It's unclear how this squares with the contention that "... South African Blacks are the most "Westernized" Blacks of Africa, closest to first-world culture and standards, and this can be seen their birthrates."

Declines in western birthrates are not usually associated with HIV/AIDS.

True.

However in Russia a falling population was attributed to a combination of alcoholism, murder and suicide (amongst the men) and emigration (amongst both women and men).

I'm not sure how true that still is of Russia but the point is that none of the above factors have much to do with the typical "middle classes having less children" reason normally associated with western Europe and white American suburbia.

[Frank]

Idk, in places like Lithuania and Latvia, it's suicide, high crime, illnesses related to alcoholism, and cancer (most likely from the poor environment)...

The legacy of communism...

...Western civilization is an illness.

Why don't you pack your bags and move away from it?

[Thomas_Sankara]

The legacy of communism...

These countries have been officially capitalist for the last 22 years. seeing as almost every poll (will deliver upon request) from the former Soviet bloc shows that the vast majority of eastern europeans wish to return to communism or that life was better then, I am not about to say it's communism.



Why don't you pack your bags and move away from it?

Or better yet, Why don't I stay and try to change the term "western" to mean something more like "a country that isn't a free-mercantile resource hungry corporatocracy bent on destroying the planet for capital"?

Lets not forget WWII had a little bit to do with gutting the Russian population numbers.

Let's not forget that it was mostly the Nazis doing the gutting.

[Sheza]

Thomas made a similar point to me.

Although I can't agree with the sweeping statement of 'western civilisation' being an illness.

Only neo-liberal capitalism.

[Frank]

These countries have been officially capitalist for the last 22 years.

American blacks have been officially free for over 40 years, but, people like you still whine about the "legacy of slavery" to excuse any shortcoming in their community.

South Africa has been officially free for 16 years but people like you still complain about the "legacy of Aparthied" when excusing that nations problems.

seeing as almost every poll (will deliver upon request) from the former Soviet bloc shows that the vast majority of eastern europeans wish to return to communism or that life was better then, I am not about to say it's communism.

If this were the case they would have elected communist governments to rule over them.

Or better yet, Why don't I stay and try to change the term "western" to mean something more like "a country that isn't a free-mercantile resource hungry corporatocracy bent on destroying the planet for capital"?

And you are really doing that by trolling the internet arguing with the "fash" on small message forums.

Let's not forget that it was mostly the Nazis doing the gutting.

And Stalin did much of his own gutting...your point?

[Long Dong Duc]

The negro population of the US has also been steadily shrinking since the end of the Civil War. No demographic threat there.

[Frank]

The negro population of the US has also been steadily shrinking since the end of the Civil War. No demographic threat there.

Actually...

The African-American population is projected to increase from 41.1 million to 65.7 million by 2050, going from 14 percent of the U.S. population to 15 percent.

CNN: Minorities expected to be majority in 2050 (http://articles.cnn.com/2008-08-13/us/census.minorities_1_hispanic-population-census-bureau-white-population?_s=PM:US)

[Long Dong Duc]

Actually...

No, really. The negro population has been steadily declining in the US since 1790, from an all-time high of 19.3% to a low of 12.1% in 1990:

http://www.census.gov/population/www/documentation/twps0056/tab01.pdf

Cause for celebration?

[Frank]

No, really. The negro population has been steadily declining in the US since 1790, from an all-time high of 19.3% to a low of 12.1% in 1990

I think you are mistaken:

1790 - US BLACK POPULATION: 757,208

vs:

1990 - US BLACK POPULATION: 29,986,060

The black population has increased by 29,228,852 people since from 1790 to 1990.

[Long Dong Duc]

I think you are mistaken:

1790 - US BLACK POPULATION: 757,208

vs:

1990 - US BLACK POPULATION: 29,986,060

We're talking about the overall proportion of blacks in the US population, Frank. It was 19.3% in 1790 and now it's 12.1% in 1990. I'd say that's a pretty big drop, wouldn't you?

[Long Dong Duc]

The black population has increased by 29,228,852 people since from 1790 to 1990.

Yes, but in terms of proportion, it decreased by 7.2% from 1790 to 1990.

[Frank]

We're talking about the overall proportion of blacks in the US population, Frank. It was 19.3% in 1790 and now it's 12.1% in 1990. I'd say that's a pretty big drop, wouldn't you?

You are understand that their numbers have drastically increased since 1790? The percentages are based on the growths of other groups not on their alleged decline.

[Long Dong Duc]

You are understand that their numbers have drastically increased since 1790? The percentages are based on the growths of other groups not on their alleged decline.

Yes, I realize that, but they are dwindling into insignificance relative to other segments of the population. Their share of the population has gotten smaller and smaller since 1790. It cannot be denied that their overall proportion in the US population has declined dramatically over the last 200 years.

[Frank]

Yes, I realize that, but they are dwindling into insignificance relative to other segments of the population. Their share of the population has gotten smaller and smaller since 1790.

However, you do realize that their population is not dropping? Other populations are simply growing; by 2050 the black population will be at over 65,000,000 according to projections.

[Long Dong Duc]

However, you do realize that their population is not dropping? Other populations are simply growing; by 2050 the black population will be at over 65,000,000 according to projections.

You're too negative. In terms of raw numbers, they are increasing, but in terms of proportion they are becoming smaller and smaller. In another 200 years, they're overall proportion within the US population will be about 5%. They will eventually become so small and insignificant that they will vanish from public life.

[Frank]

You're too negative. In terms of raw numbers, they are increasing, but in terms of proportion they are becoming smaller and smaller. In another 200 years, they're overall proportion within the US population will be about 5%. They will eventually become so small and insignificant that they will vanish from public life.

Lets continue this in your other thread on the issue...

http://www.thephora.net/forum/showthread.php?p=970744

[Abelard De Villeneuve]

...Western civilization is an illness.

Sankara is a living, breathing example of what Lothrop Stoddard meant when he warned of the Menace of the Underman.

[Thomas_Sankara]

Actually...

but don't forget, the general US population is expected to increase substantially in that time as well. they'll be a smaller piece of the demographic pie.

[Frank]

but don't forget, the general US population is expected to increase substantially in that time as well. they'll be a smaller piece of the demographic pie.

I can accept that arguments but what this guy is arguing...

[Gregz]

Sankara is a living, breathing example of what Lothrop Stoddard meant when he warned of the Menace of the Underman.

Mass starvation is on the cards and the gobal secuity situation can only deteriorate. Which is why European lands need to be purged of all inferior races and secured.

[Dante]

Looking back on this thread, I just realized that almost all the posts here are one-liners. So much for high-brow! :p

[Petr]

In spite of all their dysfunction, the South African Blacks are the most "Westernized" Blacks of Africa, closest to first-world culture and standards, and this can be seen their birthrates.
Here is some further proof for what I say: observing the small states that surround South Africa, we can see that they are part of the same demographic paradigm, having the lowest TFRs of the Black continent:


Namibia: (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/wa.html) 2.49 children born/woman (2011 est.)


Botswana: (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/bc.html) 2.5 children born/woman (2011 est.)


Lesotho: (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/lt.html) 2.94 children born/woman (2011 est.)


Swaziland: (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/wz.html) 3.11 children born/woman (2011 est.)

[President Barbicane]

For a long time I've wondered how South Africa's population could continue to grow. The white people are leaving in droves, and the black people have one of the highest rates of HIV in the world.

[Petr]

More evidence that the Blacks can experience transformation to "first-world demography" even while living in majority-Black societies; the birthrates of Caribbean Blacks are nowadays only slightly higher than that of American Blacks, and a lot lower than the TFRs of sub-Saharan Africans:

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110404/lead/lead1.html

Is Jamaica older, wiser?

Published: Monday | April 4, 2011
Lovelette Brooks, News Editor


AS BABY boomers come of age and the early 1970s National Family Planning Board's (NFPB's) 'Two is Better Than Too Many' campaign put brakes on the country's runaway birth rate, Jamaica is in the throes of an expanding ageing population, greying dramatically.

Already, policymakers are adapting to these demographic changes, and are looking towards the 2011 Population and Housing Census for updated information so they can begin to accurately and adequately plan ahead.

With an estimated total population of 2.7 million - up from 2.6 million in the 2001 census - 14 per cent are expected to be 60 years and older, representing the fastest-growing age group in Jamaica. And in another five to 10 years, this high rate of growth is expected to accelerate even more, according to the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ).

"Several factors account for this," explained Easton Williams, manager of social policy, planning and research, PIOJ.

"Fertility drastically declined in the late 1960s to early '70s. We saw the entry of more women into the workforce and more women enrolled in universities. In addition, contraceptive use became more widespread. The sum total is that the average size of families became smaller."

This decline, he noted, had an impact on the structure of the population, resulting in a slight narrowing of the population base. "The 15-64 age group is increasing, which is the working age group, and the 0-14 is shrinking. In addition, people are living longer," Williams said.

According to statistics from the NFPB, pregnancy among young women ages 15-19 declined from 38 per cent in 2002 to 36 per cent in 2008, while those having live births declined from 34 per cent in 2002 to 30 per cent in 2008.

The existing fertility rate at 2.34 births per woman is a big drop from the 1970s of 4.5 births per woman. In 1975, for example, there were 137 births to women in the 15-19 age group. In the same age group it is now at 72.

Globally, the proportion of persons aged 60 years and older is expected to double between 2000 and 2050, from 10 to 21 per cent, whereas the proportion of children is projected to drop by a third, from 30 to 21 per cent, the United Nations projects.

As Jamaica continues to adapt to ageing demographics, many changes will be necessary to manage and access services aimed at the elderly. Jamaica Drugs For The Elderly and The National Health Fund are two social-protection programmes.

No longer an 'invisible' group, the elderly population is expected to swell to an estimated 500,000 in another 10-15 years as the ageing baby-boomer process continues. Private sector providers of age-friendly services have taken note.

"Businesses are targeting the elderly in the provision of services. Housing needs and provision have shifted from sprawling family homes to multi-storey single-family units; there have been shifts in demand for transport suited to the elderly; geriatric care has improved, including availability of medicines to treat common lifestyle diseases such as hypertension and diabetes," said Williams.

...

Btw, according to CIA Factbook the Jamaican fertility is lower than what the above article says:

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/jm.html

2.17 children born/woman (2011 est.)
And another small Caribbean nation (Trinidad and Tobago) is already on "European" level:

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/td.html

1.72 children born/woman (2011 est.)

[Gregz]

For a long time I've wondered how South Africa's population could continue to grow. The white people are leaving in droves, and the black people have one of the highest rates of HIV in the world.

AIDS is out of control in all of Southern Africa. However most of the population growth has been in West and Central Africa.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_mJmwQtPmusk/SIm0bt1nCXI/AAAAAAAACD8/-tBHQRfapUM/s400/Africa-population.jpg

[Frank]

More evidence that the Blacks can experience transformation to "first-world demography" even while living in majority-Black societies; the birthrates of Caribbean Blacks are nowadays only slightly higher than that of American Blacks, and a lot lower than the TFRs of sub-Saharan Africans:

Professor Richard Lynn argues that human populations in colder environments tend to be more intelligence than those from more heated environments. Of course, there are anomalies. For example, the Inuit average an IQ of 91. To most rules there exceptions. The average White European IQ is 100 yet one Balkan nation averages an IQ of 90, again anomalies exist.

An interesting statement I once read is that if one took the entire black population of the United States and made them into a nation, they would likely be the 14th richest nation on the planet. Of course, this does not change that most American blacks have a recorded IQ of 85 and tend to be overrepresented in the criminal / lower class ranks of the American state. One must remember that you cannot dismiss the rule based on the exceptions...

What is a greater indicator to me, is that the population of Sub-Saharan African is set to explode to disastrous levels. The United Nations estimates that this population will explode by 2050; some estimates it that the population will actually double or triple.

Even in the nations Petr has cited the birthing levels are well above replacement levels which is dangerous in an area plagued by food shortages and is set to further explode population growth. We also have to remember that TFR is impacted by death rates which are monumentally high in SS Africa.

[Petr]

Professor Richard Lynn argues that human populations in colder environments tend to be more intelligence than those from more heated environments. Of course, there are anomalies. For example, the Inuit average an IQ of 91. To most rules there exceptions. The average White European IQ is 100 yet one Balkan nation averages an IQ of 90, again anomalies exist.
What has this got to do with the thread topic?

Even in the nations you have cited the birthing levels are well above replacement levels which is dangerous in an area plagued by food shortages.
In many African countries, the true replacement rate is not 2,1 (like in first-world countries) but more like 3 children per woman, because of the high child mortality.


Petr

[Petr]

http://allafrica.com/stories/201107190456.html

Rwanda: Progress On Family Planning Encouraging

19 July 2011

Officials at the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning have announced a remarkable improvement in family planning among the Rwandan people, which currently stands at about 42 percent and 43 percent, in the rural and urban areas, respectively.

Figures show a steady decline in the average number of children per Rwandan woman, from the previous six down to four, with the likelihood of the figure going further down, to three, in the coming years.

Considering that only 10 percent of the population used family planning methods in 2005 and by 2010 up to 45% of married couples were using contraception, it is evident that more couples have responded positively to the government's appeal for birth control.

...

[Dan Dare]

The UN's 2010 Revision to Population Prospects (http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm) (medium variant) has the population of Rwanda increasing from 11 million today to 42 million in 2100, even as the TFR declines to around 1,9 by 2080. It's important to bear in mind the demographer's rule of thumb that it takes 70 years, on average, after TFR falls to replacement level for a population to stop growing and begin a gradual decline.

According to the UN's latest projection, the population of Africa will grow from around 1.2 billion today to just under 3.6 billion in 2100. Over the same period the population of Europe is projected to decline to 675 million from 738 million today.

[Petr]

The UN's 2010 Revision to Population Prospects (http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm) (medium variant) has the population of Rwanda increasing from 11 million today to 42 million in 2100, even as the TFR declines to around 1,9 by 2080.
I frankly have little patience with all these "2100" predictions. Trying to predict trends that far away almost inevitably involve pretentious stats-humbug.

Formerly UNFPA used to estimate population development only up to 2050. That was more realistic than this new 2100 policy of theirs.


Petr

[Dan Dare]

I frankly have little patience with all these "2100" predictions. Trying to predict trends that far away almost inevitably involve pretentious stats-humbug.

Formerly UNFPA used to estimate population development only up to 2050. That was more realistic than this new 2100 policy of theirs.


Petr

The link I provided allows you to model whatever time-frame you wish, with variant assumptions for fertility, mortality, migration, etc. Using the median variant (which is the most plausible) Africa will have a population of 2.2 billion in 2050, more than twice what it is today. Taking even the low variant model results in an African population of 1.8 billion in 2050 and 2.4 billion in 2100.

You are being all together panglossian with your cheerful bulletins about third-world and especially African population increases.

What's your game?

[Petr]

You are being all together panglossian
Am I, huh? Well, you are being a gloomy curmudgeon.

with your cheerful bulletins about third-world and especially African population increases.
I am providing the rare sort of information that one does not come upon easily. Mainstream news (and panicky-defeatist WN underground news) like to concentrate just on the Third World population explosion, but not on the very real phenomenon of coming retirement-bomb that Asia and Latin America at least will experience during this century as those developing-world "baby boomers" who are young today grow old.


Petr

[Dan Dare]

Am I, huh? Well, you are being a gloomy curmudgeon.


I am providing the rare sort of information that one does not come upon easily. Mainstream news (and panicky-defeatist WN underground news) like to concentrate just on the Third World population explosion, but not on the very real phenomenon of coming retirement-bomb that Asia and Latin America at least will experience during this century as those developing-world "baby boomers" who are young today grow old.


Petr

Retirement bomb my arse.

Of the five largest Asian countries only China is likely to experience a population decline during this century. Its decline will however be more than compensated for by increases elsewhere in Asia, particularly the subcontinent. A similar story in Latin America where a decline in Brazil will be masked by large increases elsewhere.

As for being gloomy, you bet I am. If nothing drastic happens in the meantime our children's children will be facing a future in which 40% of the world's land area (ie Europe and the white settler countries) is held by 10% of the population. The other 90% will need to subsist on the remaining 60% of the land area, much of which is only marginally agriculturally productive, and much of which will experience deteriorating climatic conditions.

Guess what happens next. No, Africans won't be moving to China.

[Petr]

Retirement bomb my arse.

Of the five largest Asian countries only China is likely to experience a population decline during this century.
One does not need actual population decline for aging to start having a strong effect on society. I know more about these subjects than you do. Don't whine at me because of that.

This thing also has an academic interest to me - the nosedive in developing-world fertility is clear empirical evidence of how strongly environmental-cultural factors can influence human condition.

I see many WNs and racialists (especially less intelligent ones) over-reacting to PC egalitarianism by over-emphasizing the importance of heredity. Thus they can imagine, for example, that non-Whites are somehow inevitably genetically prone to breeding loads and loads of children. But the fall of TFRs of the third world shows that this is not necessarily so.


Petr

[Petr]

Guess what happens next. No, Africans won't be moving to China.
By the time of our grandchildren liberal system will have been overthrown in the West, and we will not allow any "Camp of the Saints" scenario to take place.


Petr

[Petr]

Of the five largest Asian countries only China is likely to experience a population decline during this century.
And you are wrong about this anyways. India's population, for example, will stop growing well before 2100:

http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2011-07-12/india/29764186_1_total-fertility-rate-population-day-population-conference

Population growth, fertility rate dip

Kounteya Sinha, TNN Jul 12, 2011, 01.39am


NEW DELHI: India's decadal growth rate has come down from 21.54 in 2001 to 17.64, according to the latest census.

Also encouraging is the steady decline in the Total Fertility Rate, which is currently 2.6 — a 42% decline from the mid-1960s.

This was stated by Union health minister Ghulam Nabi Azad in a unique get together of two of the world's most populated nations, India and China, on Monday.
...

According to Azad, China and India together constitute more than 2.5 billion, which is more than one-third of the world's population.

"According to the recently conducted Census of India, our population stands at 1.21 billion. As per the projections, India's population would be 1.40 billion by 2026. With only 2.4% of the entire world's landmass to support 17% of the global population; India's need for population stabilization can hardly be overemphasized. The steady decline in Total Fertility Rate is encouraging, with 14 states out of 35 already achieving the replacement fertility level of 2.1. We are focusing on the high fertility areas for population stabilization," the minister said.
...

India is likely to miss its target of reaching population stabilization by 2045. Now, the Union health ministry is looking at 2060 as a plausible target.

India had set itself the goal of attaining replacement levels of fertility — 2.1 by 2010 — to achieve the larger goal of population stabilization by 2045 — a gap of 35 years. However, by the end of 2010, only 14 states achieved the target. Six states have fertility as high as 3-4.

This has made the ministry estimate that instead of reaching population stabilization in 2045 (145 crores), it will reach the target (165 crores) around 2060.

Azad, however, has made it clear that no legislation or law would be introduced to contain population. "We can achieve our target of population stabilization by improving contraceptive use and not by any legislation," he had told TOI earlier.

The interesting thing is that Dravidian southern India already has TFR at replacement levels, while "Aryan" northern India still has much higher rates - here's already a bit dated chart:

http://www.thephora.net/forum/showthread.php?p=987822&highlight=india#post987822

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_4lRc12hwnjc/TDvDCp9FkSI/AAAAAAAAB1w/kADNppNjKWM/s1600/nfhs3.png


Indonesia (Asia's third most populous country) is also close to the replacement level already:

http://opinion.inquirer.net/7691/indonesia-a-family-planning-model-for-the-philippines

For a decade after the Asian financial crisis in 1998, Indonesia entered a period of economic crisis and political instability, and the family planning programs saw some scaling down in emphasis and budget-wise. However, the habits of contraceptive use to limit family size held: from 1997 to 2003, TFR decreased from 2.8 to 2.4, and to 2.3 in 2007.

[Petr]

This thing also has an academic interest to me - the nosedive in developing-world fertility is clear empirical evidence of how strongly environmental-cultural factors can influence human condition.

I see many WNs and racialists (especially less intelligent ones) over-reacting to PC egalitarianism by over-emphasizing the importance of heredity. Thus they can imagine, for example, that non-Whites are somehow inevitably genetically prone to breeding loads and loads of children. But the fall of TFRs of the third world shows that this is not necessarily so.
Islamic-African "Sahel" countries are surely going to be the last areas on earth to undergo the great "fertility fall" that all modernizing societies inevitably go through. And yet even there this process seems to have begun, driven by economic and cultural forces:

http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?reportid=93813

SENEGAL: “Small revolution” in family planning


DAKAR, 26 September 2011 (IRIN) - Talibouya Ka, Muslim leader (imam) of the Omar Kane mosque in the Medina neighbourhood of the Senegalese capital Dakar, encourages his followers to procreate as much as they can. “There are imams who are for family planning, but I am not. I tell worshippers they need to increase the size of the global Muslim family.”

Such attitudes, which used to be prevalent in Senegal, are increasingly rare, particularly in Dakar, midwives and doctors at the Hospital Centre for Health and Hygiene in Medina, told IRIN.

Senegalese families are spacing their children, having fewer, and as a result are increasingly searching for long-term family planning solutions, said Fatou Seck, a midwife at the hospital.

While in 1990 the average woman in Senegal had 6.7 children in her reproductive cycle; in 2009 when the latest statistics were made available, they had 4.8, according to the Health Ministry.

“There is a small revolution going on - husbands and imams who were traditionally against any kind of family planning are slowly starting to accept it,” said Ephie Diouf, 31, a child-minder in Dakar and mother of a five-month-old son.

Government push

One reason for contraceptive take-up is the high cost of living, particularly in the capital, said Soda Diagne, 32, a Dakar businesswoman who is married without children. “People are realizing they can’t feed and educate five children at today’s prices.” The price of imported rice - a staple in Senegal - rose sharply in 2007 and 2008 and then again in 2010.

While the average fertility rate across the country is five children per woman, in Dakar it is 3.9, according to NGO Marie Stopes International (MSI).

But the behaviour shift is also due to a push by the government to encourage family planning in state-run hospitals and clinics as part of its maternal mortality reduction strategy, said the UN Population Fund’s (UNFPA) Senegal joint director, Edwige Adekambi.

Many of the poorest performers in maternal mortality are in West Africa; while Senegal is at the high end of the regional scale, the numbers are still significant: 410 women die per 100,000 live births, according to the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF).

The Health Ministry has doubled the budget for reproductive health, and within that, has doubled the budget for family planning to US$200,000 per year, according to UNFPA.

At parliamentary level, politicians are also starting to take into account the need to balance economic and demographic growth, she added. (In many West African states, the potential gains of economic growth are being erased by soaring populations).

Stock ruptures

Part of the additional funding will be used to ensure that contraceptives start to be included in the list of essential stocks routinely ordered for government pharmacies and medical centres, as per a ministerial order.

To date, erratic supplies have severely impeded the ability of some women to access contraceptives, said Adekambi, which also means they are subject to paying more than the government-set tariff - 100 CFA (20 US cents) for one month’s supply of the birth control pill.

Diouf backs this up. She pays 1,500 CFA ($3.10) to a private pharmacy for her monthly contraceptive pill because her local clinic is often out of stock. “Many women I know go to private clinics to get their birth control pill, but end up taking bad or old pills and get pregnant anyway,” she said. Availability is even lower in rural areas, where just one in 20 sexually active people use contraception (versus one in five in Dakar).

On 19 September, MSI opened three family planning clinics: two in the capital and one in M’bour, 70km south of Dakar, aiming to give women greater access to affordable family planning services, as well as to give advice and testing on sexual health, and provide basic ante-natal care. Providing these services at an affordable fee could reduce medical expenses linked to reproductive health in Senegal by $20.8 million by 2015, estimates MSI.

The government has been very supportive of the NGO’s work, said Senegal director Maaika Van Min; and the local imam attended the opening ceremony of one of the new clinics.

Agents for change

But while attitudes are changing, there are still pockets where people cling to traditional beliefs, said Adekambi, particularly in rural areas such as Matam in the northeast, which has the lowest contraceptive use rate in the country.

Since 2006 Catholic and Muslim religious leaders have worked together to try and issue updated religious guidelines on family planning, stressing the fact that neither the Koran, nor the Bible are against spacing of births.

Midwife Seck said the imam at her local mosque now preaches to families to space their children by 30 months. “He tells families this is how to keep their wives healthy. Family planning is not banned in Islam… Religion is about well-being, and spacing children is part of that.”

In Matam, UNFPA worked with couples from the community to become agents for change: they went door to door to discuss family planning with household members. Contraceptive use has risen in the region, but Adekambi said nonetheless, UNFPA may take the approach one step further - by opening a “school for husbands” based on a model they organized in Niger, where reproductive sexual health and other gender issues are discussed.

Many husbands or partners are reluctant to embrace family planning at first, said midwife Seck. At consultations “we discuss with them the benefits… that their wife will have more time to look after each child, more time to look after herself, and most importantly, more time to look after him,” she told IRIN.

That tactic often seems to do the trick, she said.

[Dapper Old Gent]

So if we discover the cure for HIV we're fucked???

[Petr]

Another African country whose TFR has fallen to 4,8 - meaning that it has already lost about 1/3 of the roughly 7-8 children per woman fertility rate that is the norm in pre-modern primitive societies. The recent small growth in Ethiopia's urban TFR (which is in any case surprisingly low) is probably due to massive influx of high-fertility peasants that are now moving to cities and do not immediately assimilate to their new mode of life.

http://prbblog.org/index.php/2011/09/21/ethiopia-2011-demographic-health-survey/

Ethiopia’s 2011 Demographic and Health Survey Shows Remarkable Fertility Decline, But Continued Rural Health Challenges

September 21st, 2011 | by Carl Haub, senior visiting scholar


Continuing my recent practice of posting a quick summary of results from new demographic surveys in developing countries (http://prbblog.org/index.php/2011/09/09/nepal-demographic-health-survey/), here is another new Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) preliminary report, this time from a sub-Saharan African country. This will help readers of this blog to stay right up-to-date with the latest developments.

The Ethiopia 2011 DHS interviewed 16,515 women ages 15 to 49 and 14,110 men ages 15 to 59 from September 2010 to June 2011. The total fertility rate (TFR — the average number of children would bear in her lifetime if the birth rate of a particular year were to remain constant) obtained in the survey was 4.8 for the three-year period preceding the survey. For urban women, the TFR was 2.6 and for rural women, who were a little over 75 percent of the sample, 5.5. There appears to have been an acceleration of TFR decline from the 2005 to the 2011 survey compared with the 2000 DHS, which had a three-year TFR of 5.5.* In 1990, a government survey had shown the TFR as 6.4. The desire to continue or cease childbearing provides one insight into possible future fertility trends. Of the women with 5 living children, 55.8 percent said that they did not wish to have any more children; among women with 6 or more living children, 68.6 percent said that they also wished to ceased childbearing.

http://www.prb.org/images11/blog-ethiopia-tfr.jpg

Note: TFRs are for the three years before the surveys, except five years before the 2000 survey

Source: Ethiopian Central Statistics Agency (CSA) and ICF Macro, Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) 2011, Preliminary Report.

[Petr]

Regional TFR differences in Tanzania are illuminating:

http://allafrica.com/stories/201201230582.html

The taboo of young mothers returning to lessons is especially strong in the profoundly poor, drought-prone region of Shinyanga, where Kalunde lives, and rate of school pregnancies is rising. "Education is an absolute priority in these regions," says Julitta Onabanjo, the UN Population Fund's representative in Tanzania.

"It is really stark, in regions like Arusha (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arusha_Region) and Kilimanjaro (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kilimanjaro_Region) where education is valued, for example, women have an average of two to three births, but in places like Shinyanga (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shinyanga_Region) there are seven births on average. It is still a widespread mentality in Africa that your family is your wealth."
...

But national statistics show that education is fundamental to birthrate. A third of Tanzanians over 10 years old cannot read or write and those women with no education have an average of 6.9 babies. Women with a primary school education have 5.6 babies on average and those with secondary and higher education, just 3.2 babies.

[Columnist]

http://www.lifesitenews.com/news/to-planned-parenthood-keep-your-abortion-grubbing-hands-off-my-continent

January 23, 2012 (HLIWorldWatch.org) - Many people in the West have an image of Africans as either starving, huddled masses, or as perpetually warring tribesmen. To be sure, we have had many problems with war and oppressive dictators who create subhuman conditions for those they are supposed to serve. But in fact, Africa is a continent where love, life, marriage and family are totally interwoven – so much so that one cannot stand without the others. If you trample on one of these, you harm all others.

African fathers and mothers love life, love their children and stand strongly for the family. For us, life is sacred and the family is the only institution where life is passed on from generation to generation. Every child is precious, and having children - that is, having a strong generation following our own - is how we care for our elders during moments of sickness or when one member of the family becomes handicapped. Children are the pride of the society, for it is through children that society is sustained.

So imagine our dismay when we read that International Planned Parenthood (IPPF) has a “strategic plan” for Africa that seeks to intrude and destroy these fundamental and basic African tenets of life. Apparently these people we have never met are planning an 82 percent increase in “safe abortion” services, of which they seem to think we are in dire need.

Since IPPF came to Africa some 50 years ago, abortion has been their number one agenda. They initially came with concerns of “helping” us with our population “problems” – problems that we did not know that we had since most African nations are less densely populated than the countries of those who were telling us there were too many of us. This was before they changed their description of their “population control services” to “reproductive health services.”

Frankly, sometimes I wonder where those who used to clamour about American imperialism are now that this imperialism has been repackaged in language of “empowerment” and “health.” Thanks to the strong pro-life roots of most African cultures, it has taken IPPF many years to infiltrate the African mind with its abortion ideology. But sadly, they are finally seeing some success, and apparently, as with the release of this strategic plan, they no longer see the need to hide their true intentions. What is also very sad is that Western political pressure, including economic assistance tied to population control conditions, and capitalizing on the greed of some African government leaders, is helping the abortion agenda to finally gain traction in some regions.

Already several African governments have legalized abortion-on-demand, and others are in the last stages of doing so. In my home country of Tanzania, the IPPF affiliate group, The Family Planning Association of Tanzania, has been fighting tooth and nail since 1969 to have completely unrestricted abortion legalized in Tanzania. But due to the efforts of the Catholic Church, the Muslim community and pro-life organizations, the fight to keep unrestricted abortions out of the country has so far been successful. Our friends in neighbouring countries have not been so lucky.

We must not stand idly by watching well-funded Western efforts to legalize abortion take place in Africa where the citizens are pro-life and pro-family. We must resist false claims that abortion can be made “safe.” No matter the conditions of the facility, abortion always kills a child and harms women, and the same people who now do illegal abortions around Africa are the ones who will do it legally. This has always been the case.

Abortion is neither part of our African culture, nor a priority need of the African people; and to be honest, it is deeply insulting when Westerners try to tell us and the world what we need.

In the English-speaking region of Africa where I coordinate pro-life activities, we are attempting to dismantle the infrastructure being built by organizations like IPPF and the United Nations Population Fund. We are educating our brothers and sisters through collaborative information sharing and regional conferences about the fact that IPPF is not concerned with our health, but with the fact that we still have children, and that makes them very uncomfortable.

What we need in Africa is better education for our children based on sound intellectual and moral values; good roads to transport our agricultural products; reliable electrical power to accelerate development; clean water; and above all, Africans need respect from people in the West, not condescension and demands that we stop having more children. We do not want our continent to be a dumping ground for contraceptives and condoms; we do not need to be sterilized; we do not need abortion.

IPPF’s plans are deplorable, and I pray that Western governments will stop funding their efforts to eliminate more and more of the African people.

[Petr]

I have written elsewhere:

I have noticed how many people, WNs and non-WNs alike, often assume than in badly organized third world countries, the real population is bigger than what the official statistics say. But I think it can actually be smaller.

Think about it - those corrupt third-world bureaucrats who are responsible for surveying population, what possible material benefit could they gain by claiming that the population is smaller than it really is? But by inflating the figures (double-counting or just by plain inventing people), they can collect more Western aid or government-budget grants and also make their own tribes and peoples look more powerful.

One dissenting scholar opines, for example:

http://www.lifesitenews.com/news/archive/ldn/1999/oct/99100705

Pierre Channu, a demographer with 50 years experience, has called the report on the world’s population issued by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), “false” and “a genuine manipulation.” Channu, professor emeritus of the University of Sorbonne and a member of the French Academy said in an interview with Zenit that, “for the past 35 to 40 years we have witnessed an incredible deceleration of fertility rates, but these calculations are never kept in mind” when calculations of world population are made by UNFPA. Channu notes that the African population figures are inflated, as was shown in the result of a census carried out in Nigeria a few years ago, whose figures in no way agreed with those of the United Nations. “Africa has one hundred million less people than the official figures,” he said.
I recently came upon what seems to be an example of this phenomenon. This is what the CIA Factbook says about Ethiopia:

Population: 93,815,992 (July 2012 est.)
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/et.html

But this is what one Ethiopian expert claims instead, in an article written this week:

http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=106826

Abeba Bezu, an economic affairs consultant in Addis Ababa, said that under the country’s ambitious Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty government had reduced poverty from 38.7 percent in 2005 to 31 percent five years later.

"Although struggling with a large population estimated to be 82 million people, making it the second- most populous country in Sub-Saharan Africa, there has been significant progress towards improving livelihoods. There is notable development."
The Ethiopian census held in 2007 supports the lower estimate - only 73,918,505 people counted:

http://www.geohive.com/cntry/ethiopia.aspx


Likewise, the UN Population Division puts Ethiopia's "2010" population at 82,950,000 - also a considerable difference from the estimate presented by the CIA Factbook (the UN also puts Ethiopia's TFR at 4,6 and falling quickly):

http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/Panel_profiles.htm

[Gregz]

Likewise, the UN Population Division puts Ethiopia's "2010" population at 82,950,000 - also a considerable difference from the estimate presented by the CIA Factbook (the UN also puts Ethiopia's TFR at 4,6 and falling quickly):

http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/Panel_profiles.htm

Whilst Ethiopia and Botswana are about the best of the bunch. Ethiopia's population has doubled since the 80's and blacks breed like fly's.

[Petr]

Whilst Ethiopia and Botswana are about the best of the bunch.
Not quite so. According to the CIA, Ghana (3.39), Kenya (3.98) and Tanzania (4.02) have lower TFRs than Ethiopia:

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/gh.html

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/tz.html

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ke.html


Haiti, Africa's representative in the New World, is said to be down to only three children per woman and its neighbor Dominican Republic to 2,4:

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ha.html

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/dr.html

[Petr]

http://www.hliworldwatch.org/?p=1332

Lesotho, a small African nation about the size of Maryland and completely surrounded by the country of South Africa, is known as “The Kingdom in the Sky” for its high elevation and mountainous terrain. Like its beautiful landscape, the population was at one time sky-high with Basotho (the plural name of Lesotho citizens) women having an average of 5.8 children in 1975. That birthrate has now dropped to 2.8, and is projected to drop below the replacement level of 2.1 within the next ten years thanks in large part to the efforts of international population control organizations doing their best to destroy traditional family values in Lesotho.
...

Life expectancy in Lesotho is a dismal forty years, largely due to the high adult HIV infection rate of 24 percent, the third highest in the world, and the world’s fourth highest tuberculosis infection rate. Only about six percent of Basotho are above the age of 60, and there are 170,000 AIDS orphans. Virtually every family has been heavily impacted.

Bishop Augustinius Tumaole Bane, ordinary of the Leribe Diocese, whose brother and brother’s spouse both died of HIV leaving four orphans, says the huge rate of HIV infection is due to a drastic decline in morality, which is a direct result of the baleful influence of the West. He also says that, “Catholicism has always played a big role in the lives of the people, but most of the people are Catholics only on Sundays. During the week they are inclined to their own traditional way of living. So there is a separation between the faith and the day to day.”

The current monarch, King Letsie III, plays a unifying role amidst all the diverse political parties and religions. He is Catholic, and he recently declared that he would no longer continue the royal tradition of polygamy. Because of his example of monogamy (and perhaps also because a wife costs 25 head of cattle), polygamy is declining in Lesotho.

[Don Diego Vega]

http://www.hliworldwatch.org/?p=1332


That's good!

[Columnist]

Spengler (David Goldman) more or less makes the same argument.

[RuneX2]

That birthrate has now dropped to 2.8, and is projected to drop below the replacement level of 2.1With the high number of AIDS infections I should think the replacement level is considerable higher than 2.1. Or even 2.8. According to Wiki, 50% of the female urban population is infected. Assuming these are evenly spread in the age groups, this alone must mean that the replacement level is 4.2 for this population.

[Petr]

A case study of African statistical games from Sierra Leone:

http://www.thenewpeople.com/editorials-oped/item/1029-apc-already-rigging-2012-elections-by-changing-the-census-figures

Friday, 08 July 2011 23:57

APC Already Rigging 2012 Elections by Changing the Census Figures

Written by Ahn Moss

The APC has always said they have 99 ways to rig elections but most times Sierra Leoneans focus almost exclusively on violence. It seems most Sierra Leoneans are barking up the wrong tree this time as I have discovered a very troubling trend wherein the APC government is already rigging the 2012 elections even before voter registration. The rigging is taking place at the Sierra Leone Statistics Office as we speak wherein figures now generated by that office have been inflated by as much as 25%.

No wonder Dr Lawrence Kamara was hounded out of office by the ethnic-cleanser Richard Konteh. It is generally accepted practice that census takes place every ten years but Ernest Koroma and his government is so eager to artificially change the demographics of the country that they are already feeding wrong figures to the international community who are so gullible that they have swallowed the lie hook line and sinker. The sad part of it all is that all opposition parties seem oblivious of this diabolical move by Ernest Koroma.

It could be remembered that the last census was conducted in 2004 (http://www.geohive.com/cntry/sierraleone.aspx) with the results published in 2006. In that census, the population of Sierra Leone was about 4,976,871 people 35.1% of which lived in the Northern Province, 22% in the South, 23.9% in the Eastern Province and 19% in the Western Area. The average rate of population increase per year between 1985 and 2004 in Sierra Leone according to that census was 1.8%. That is a period of twenty years.

Now the APC has not only inflated the population figures to almost 6 million people, they have unintelligently inflated the population of the Temne ethnic group, while fictitiously reducing the population of all other ethnic groups. To be precise the statistics office has inflated the population of the country to 5,836,220 without any census. This means within five years of the publication of the last census results the population of Sierra Leone has grown by a whopping 15% and that of the Temnes have grown by another whopping 4% while the population of all other ethnic groups has dwindled. This means the average annual rate of population increase in Sierra Leone is a whopping 3%. Even China cannot match such incredible population increase.

It must be remembered the last census puts the whole of the Northern Province at 35% of the national population and yet the APC unintelligently puts the Temens as 35% of the population. Does that mean the whole of the North is occupied by Temnes? For instance, there is no significant Temne population in Koinadugu, the Temens share Kambia whith the Soso and Madingo, in Tonkolili, they also share that district with Lokos. In Bombali district the Temnes share with Lokos, Limbas, Fulas and Madingos. The only district that is predominantly Temne is Port Loko. So I would love the APC government and the Statistics office to first justify the 15% inflation of the country’s population and also the 4% inflation of the Temne population at the detriment of all other ethnic groups.

Friends I discussed this matter with were quick to see through the APC gimmicks. Constituencies are distributed according to population distribution and inflating the population of Temnes who are predominant in Port Loko district means APC will have more constituencies in their strong hold while reducing the number of constituencies in the South East and West of the country. All political parties must reject this blatant rigging of the elections even before registration. APC has cleverly distributed these cooked figures to the international community and they are now using it as credible numbers. Unless the people of Sierra Leone wake up to the reality they may as well see 2012 elections as a formality.

[Petr]

The New York Times, in an article that mostly concentrates on scaring people with the African population explosion (and is thus a sort of "hostile witness"), says that Ethiopia, the second-most populous African country after Nigeria, has now the TFR of only four children per woman:

Birthrates have edged down to about four children per woman in Kenya, Ethiopia and Ghana.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/15/world/africa/in-nigeria-a-preview-of-an-overcrowded-planet.html?pagewanted=2&tntemail1=y&_r=1&emc=tnt


This info would seem to support that figure:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ethiopia/fertility-rate-total-births-per-woman-wb-data.html

The Fertility rate; total (births per woman) in Ethiopia was 4.35 in 2009, according to a World Bank report, published in 2010. The Fertility rate; total (births per woman) in Ethiopia was reported at 4.52 in 2008, according to the World Bank. Total fertility rate represents the number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with current age-specific fertility rates. This page includes a historical data chart, news and forecats for Fertility rate; total (births per woman) in Ethiopia. Ethiopia has been one of the fastest growing non oil dependent countries in Africa. Ethiopia's economy is based on agriculture, which accounts for more than 45% of GDP, 80% of exports, and 80% of total employment.

[Columnist]

The New York Times, in an article that mostly concentrates on scaring people with the African population explosion (and is thus a sort of "hostile witness"), says that Ethiopia, the second-most populous African country after Nigeria, has now the TFR of only four children per woman:


http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/15/world/africa/in-nigeria-a-preview-of-an-overcrowded-planet.html?pagewanted=2&tntemail1=y&_r=1&emc=tnt


This info would seem to support that figure:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ethiopia/fertility-rate-total-births-per-woman-wb-data.html
Hey, racism!!! I think birth control and abortion are the only areas where 'disparate impact' is disregarded, at least somewhat compared to other areas.

[Petr]

Not only Africans but also Pakistanis are habitual forgers of population-data. Like most sub-Saharan African countries, Pakistan is also divided into quarreling tribes and provinces (http://www.thephora.net/forum/showthread.php?t=76202&highlight=karachi) that try to puff up their numbers as much as possible.


http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_6788/is_4_37/ai_n28724633/

The third census was finally held in September 1972 in Pakistan (formerly West Pakistan) and reported a population of 65.3 million for the four provinces and FATA which provided an intercensal increment of 22 million and a rate of growth of 3.66 percent per annum for the country. The large growth of population aside from the natural increase and immigration mainly from Bangladesh and other neighbouring countries was a result of over reporting by provinces for political representation and other gains expected from the federal government. Since then the political awareness in provinces of Pakistan has heightened and trend of over reporting and over enumeration of population started.

The extent of over enumeration was significant as there were 28 out of then 63 districts in 1972 which had reported an annual rate of growth of four percent and over. Those districts which had reported an annual rate of growth of four percent and over in the 1981 Census were 19 out of 63. Those districts which had an annual growth rate of five percent and over were 14 out of 63 in 1972 and also 14 out of 63 in the 1981 census. There were eight districts in 1981 which had reported an annual rate of growth as high as 6.9 percent, 8.2 percent, 8.9 percent, 9.2 percent, 10.2 percent, 10.5 percent, 11.8 percent and 13.1 percent [Population Census Organisation (1985)]. The population figures reported in the de jure system of 1972 and 1981 censuses were accepted by the Government and had become legal for use for various purposes.

The fifth population census which was due in March 1991 had to be postponed several times because of the trend of over reporting that had been started at the stage of house-listing. Ultimately to over-come this trend and improve the quality of census data, services of Army personnel who were specially trained in census methodology, had to be mobilised.
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_6788/is_4_37/ai_n28724632/

The next census was due in 1991. Adequate preparations were made. It is a standard operation in every census to conduct house listing before the actual detailed inquiry. Enumerators visit all the houses within their block, put a census number on the house, list the house number corresponding with the census number, and ask a broad question on the total number of persons staying in the house and record this number in their registers. These numbers showed absurd exaggeration, with 10 to 12 percent annual growth in many districts. The operation was called off and it was decided to proceed afresh. The delay and postponement led to politicisation of the 1991 census. The importance and need for holding the census was realised but no government was prepared to face census results which sharply changed inter-provincial ratios or rural-urban ratios, as these would have resulted in altering the seats allocated to different provinces in the national Assembly as well as the allocation of development funds allocated on the basis of population. The frequent postponement of censuses by different governments became a domestic and international embarrassment.
http://tribune.com.pk/story/33782/census-delayed-for-being-a-risky-enterprise/

The last census was conducted in 1998 after a lapse of 18 years. Three sensitive issues – NFC award, the allocation of seats in the federal legislature and provincial assemblies and the quota in federal government jobs – are decided on the basis of population. Because of this criterion, population census has always been the source of serious bitterness and tug-of-war between the four provinces.

According to a projection by the National Institute of Population Studies (NIPS), the total population of Pakistan on April 14, 2010 was 172.57 million. The population of Pakistan will cross the 209,81 million mark in 2020, the report added.

The NIPS report on population is based on different formulas and assessments. Because of this reason the chief census commissioner is not ready to buy its findings.

“These figures are merely made up. I do not consider them worthy of serious consideration,” Khizer Hayat Khan said. However, the Pakistan Planning Commission, Election Commission of Pakistan and all other national and international organisations continue to use the NIPS statistics in their projections and plans.
...

According to census officials, the population growth trend appears to be on the decline. At present the population growth rate is 1.96 per cent annually, they say, while 10 years ago it was 3.6 per cent.